495
FXUS61 KILN 060804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area offering dry weather
through the weekend into early next week. The next threat for
showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture
increases on the backside of retreating high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level shortwave to translate east from the Great Lakes into
New England today. In the post surface frontal environment
drier air to advect into the region on westerly flow.

Residual low level moisture will support the development of
cumulus clouds with the best coverage across the north. As we
work into the later part of the afternoon the clouds will erode
from south to north.

High temperatures to range from near 80 north to the mid 80s
along and south of the Ohio River.

Westerly winds are between 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts up to
20 mph will be observed this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure build over the area tonight. This will
keep conditions dry under a mostly clear sky. Low temperatures
to range from the upper 50s to the lower/middle 60s.

Surface high pressure centered over the area Sunday morning will
begin to shift off to the east Sunday. Dry conditions will
continue with the beginning of a warming trend. High
temperatures to range from the mid 80s to the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure shifts east of the Ohio Vally Sunday night
into Monday. Southerly flow develops west of the high which will
allow for heat and humidity to return to the region. Monday may end
up being the hottest day of the week with forecast highs in the
lower 90s.

Temperatures take a step back on Tuesday and Wednesday when an upper
level shortwave and weak surface front moves through. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible especially in the afternoons when
diurnal instability peaks. Winds shift to the west and then the
north at some point on Tuesday night behind the boundary.

Winds likely remain out of the north or northeast through the end of
the work week. Rain chances dropoff since the remnants of Hurricane
Beryl are expected remain south of the Ohio Valley. Despite
northerly or easterly winds, forecast highs are still expected to
reach well into the 80s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the wake of a surface cold frontal passage drier air will
filter into the area on westerly winds. The drier conditions
overnight will offer VFR conditions for most locations
overnight. The exception is KLUK where some valley fog may lead
to some temporary visibility restrictions.

Saturday will see westerly flow along with the formation of a
VFR cumulus field during the afternoon. These shallow clouds
will dissipate before sunset with continued VFR conditions
expected overnight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR