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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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477 FXUS62 KILM 071946 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 346 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and muggy airmass will remain in place across the Carolinas this week with dangerous heat and humidity possible at times. Unsettled weather should provide some much-needed rainfall late this week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure over the Atlantic will remain in control of the weather locally while a stalled front remains over the Piedmont well northwest of the CWA. A retrograding mid-upper closed low will help to redirect the mid-upper flow from westerly today to be more northerly on Monday. The stalled front will help focus convective development northwest of the area which could bring semi-organized clusters of storms southeastward or southward into the western zones mainly near and west of I-95 during the evening today and on Monday. Anomalous moisture featuring PWATs of 2-2.3" will keep a risk of very heavy rainfall in place where any thunderstorms occur. Otherwise, the sea breeze should mainly be a focus for brief shower development with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Temperatures will remain closer to normal amidst greater cloud cover and isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. Morning lows in the mid-upper 70s and highs in the lower 90s are forecast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Stalled front will remain west of the area through Tuesday night and high pressure offshore will continue to rejuvenate a warm and humid air mass. Expect showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday inland after daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew points in the lower 70s could produce heat indices up to 105 degrees. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern during afternoon storms as steering flow remains weak. Lows each night in the mid 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Remaining warm and muggy during the middle of this week even as a stalled frontal boundary lifts north and westward with the remnants of Beryl. Moisture deepens on Wednesday and upper trough slips southward. Combination of these two features should lead to scattered showers and storms both Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances increase later in the week as the previously stalled front returns to the western Carolinas. Deep moisture and mid level shortwave near the front will likely create widespread showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Have capped 12-hour PoPs to around 60% as this activity will be convective in nature, but follow the diurnal expectation loosely. Onshore flow could fuel a few storms near the coast overnight. Heavy rain will continue to be the main concern in addition to the routine threat of an isolated strong downburst. The front is expected to dissipate by Sunday, but an approaching (albeit weak) shortwave from the northwest could maintain unsettled conditions. Coverage is expected to be less than previous days. Upper level moisture will decrease slightly and could introduce a better chance for isolated strong wind gusts on Sunday afternoon. Highs during the middle of this week staying in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat indices up to 105 degrees are possible. Cooling toward the end of this week as a cold front attempts to return to its original position and clouds and convection dominate. Gradually warming late next weekend with a gradual return to typical afternoon storm coverage. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of any brief MVFR to IFR vis/cig impacts brought by a passing shower or storm. With the sea breeze already through the coastal terminals, the chances of this are very low through the remainder of the period. Looking inland, an extensive cloud deck over the Pee Dee region should largely prevent development over the next few hours, but convection developing to the west may bring showers late this afternoon or this evening. At LBT, largely uninterrupted heating brings a relatively higher chance of a shower or storm there, but confidence remains low enough to preclude any more than a VCTS mention. Tonight, winds should become light and variable or even calm for a time, which may permit mist development. However, confidence is too low to mention at this time; if any rainfall occurs at the terminals this afternoon or evening, the chance would increase. ILM received a soaking rainfall earlier today, so this terminal will bear watching for the possibility of MVFR mist late tonight. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day. && .MARINE... Through Monday... South to south-southwesterly winds of around 10 kts with gusts to around 15 kts will continue through the period around offshore high pressure. Waves of 2-3 ft will be driven by a combination of southeasterly swells of around 2 ft at 8-9 sec and southerly wind waves of 1-2 ft at 4 sec. Monday through Thursday Night... Bermuda high to maintain typical summertime conditions with southerly flow over the next several days. Winds around 10 knots likely each day, increasing slightly during the afternoon near the coastline in a weak sea breeze. Seas around 2-3 feet but building to around 3-4 into the Thursday with the development of southerly swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...ABW MARINE...21/ABW