214
FXUS63 KICT 052033
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures anticipated this week.

- Unsettled weather returns with a chance of storms Saturday night
  through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Ridging is expected to remain over the western CONUS over the next
several days while slowly amplifying. Meanwhile, broad
troughing will remain draped across Mid America, with several
shortwave perturbations progged to pass through the Plains over
the next week. This will bring intermittent chances for showers
and storms to the region.

Storm chances (25-40%) increase tomorrow mainly across central KS
tomorrow afternoon, and NW of the KS-turnpike by tomorrow
evening/night. Scattered severe storms remain possible mainly
west of the I-135 corridor. The best instability looks to remain
west of the CWA but perhaps skirting the western fridge of the
CWA. If the instability can arrive there will be ample 0-6km
shear to support storm organization. Storms are expected to
become more widespread Sunday (chances 50-75%) and with PW
increasingly to 1.75 to 2 inches very heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible, especially over portions of
southern KS.

There is some uncertainty in how the severe threat plays out on
Sunday. However, if the instability and rich dewpoints don`t get
washed out, there will be support for some organized severe storms
to develop with modest shear and MLCAPE possible by the afternoon
hours. As unsettled weather continues into next week, so too will
the seasonable, to slightly cooler than seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated rain showers from mid-level bases will drift east-
southeastward across central Kansas this afternoon. So have
inserted VCSH. Otherwise, light to modest northwest winds
will become light/variable this evening/tonight before becoming
south-southwest by Saturday morning. VFR conditions expected to
prevail thru the forecast valid period.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...KED