000
FXUS63 KICT 132328
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pesky shower/storm chances will linger through tonight.

- Scorching stretch of Summer heat looks to peak on Monday!

- Turning cooler by mid-week with some shower/storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Despite continued/gradual warming at or below 700 mb, the
temperatures aloft closer to 500 mb remained relatively cool.
This continues to promote isolated to widely scattered elevated
convection where there remains sufficient mid-level moisture
potential instability within the weakly perturbed northerly
flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge aloft. This has
had some effect on early afternoon heating, though enough late
day sunshine is expected to realize late day highs close to the
going forecast. The rest of the forecast remains on track with
respect to the going Heat Advisory and day over day warming
resulting in the pinnacle of the heat peaking on Monday
afternoon across much of the area. Timing of the anticipated
stronger surface cold front on Tuesday is somewhat in question,
though south central and southeast Kansas stand the better
chance to languish one more day in the more intense heat. If
this trend continues then the Heat Advisory may need to be
extended into Tuesday for these areas with later forecasts.

As a significant upper trof pivots eastward from the Upper
Midwest across the Great Lakes through mid-week, a welcome
much cooler/slightly below climo airmass will advect south
across mid-America. While there will be chances for a period of
mainly post-frontal showers/storms Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, it appears drier air will be more progressive
in overspreading the area associated with the large Midwest low
level anticyclone. So the main theme for later in the week will
be the more tolerable below climo temperatures for Kansas as the
more intense heat persists across parts of the western conus as
the upper ridge builds northward from the interior West into
the Canadian Rockies.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Gusty southerly winds should diminish in intensity this evening
but stay breezy through most of the forecast period especially
in north central and portions of south central Kansas. The winds
may need to be bumped up for Sunday afternoon based on what
occurred this afternoon; it was decided to let latter shifts
reassess. As highlighted previously, an isolated chance for a
shower or storm exists into Sunday morning, but confidence is
too low to mention anything for a specific location. VFR
conditions will prevail with only persistent few to scattered
high clouds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...VJP