912
FXUS63 KICT 142327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday looks to be the hottest day of the Summer so far!

- Heat relief transitioning south across the area Tuesday into
  Wednesday along with some shower/storm chances.

- Cooler/below climo temperatures for the latter half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The pinnacle of the heat will peak on Monday afternoon with
highs above 105 west of the turnpike and heat indices around or
just above 105 areawide. The position of the frontal boundary
wavering along or just north of the I-70 corridor may slip
southward again into a portion of central Kansas by Tuesday
afternoon, though still plenty hot with a ribbon of
compressional warming just south of the front. Isolated high
based showers/storms may form just northwest of the area and
move into parts of central Kansas by early Monday evening,
posing a marginal wind risk. Convective chances look to
increase across the entire area, mainly along and just behind
the cold front, as it moves southward across Kansas and into
Oklahoma from Tuesday into Tuesday night. While not widespread,
clusters of thunderstorms should produce scattered areas of
beneficial (some locally heavy) rainfall. A few strong to
marginally severe storms will also be possible Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night. While chances for post-frontal showers and
storms will linger through Wednesday night, progressively drier
air will overspread the area associated with the large low level
anticyclone settling southward across the Midwest. So the main
theme for the latter half of the week will be the more tolerable
below climo temperatures for Kansas as the more intense heat
persists across parts of the western conus as the upper ridge
builds northward from the interior West into the Canadian
Rockies.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

There are minimal aviation concerns with this forecast period.
Breezy southerly winds will quickly diminish this evening before
picking up again back to sustained 15-20kts for all but KRSL
and KGBD in mid to late morning through the afternoon. A front
will drop into north central Kansas late Monday which will
switch the winds to the northerly direction. There is some
question in the exact timing which may need to be adjusted in
upcoming issuances. Additionally there could be shower and storm
development in northern Kansas Monday evening and night which
may impact those sites. VFR conditions shall otherwise prevail.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...VJP