Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
199 FXUS63 KICT 061919 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for locally damaging winds this evening in central KS. - Periodic rounds of convection, some strong with locally heavy rainfall late tonight through Sunday night. - Generally drier with a warming as we progress thru next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad troughing encompassed the interior conus with several shortwaves traversing thru the flow this weekend which will accentuate the upper trof from the Upper Midwest across the lower Plains by Sunday night. A moderately unstable airmass and likewise bulk shear will foster severe convection thru the late afternoon from across northwest Kansas. Despite this broken line of convection encountering somewhat less instability as it moves east-southeast by early evening into west central/north central Kansas, steep lapse rates will promote strong downdrafts and storm-scale outflow with potential to affect northwest portions of the forecast area, especially Russell/Lincoln/ Barton counties early this evening before weakening. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP lend more support/confidence in this scenario thru the early evening. The forecast is a bit more tricky later tonight into Sunday as there remains several plausible convective scenarios. However, there seems to be general support for additional convection overnight, possibly aided by mesoscale influences, mainly across portions of western Kansas, which will tend to move/propagate into western portions of central and south central Kansas toward dawn. A few strong storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall with increased precipitable water (PWAT) values. While model trends continue to support pushing the effective surface frontal boundary into Oklahoma on Sunday, except perhaps far southeast Kansas, the atmosphere will remain modestly unstable even with limited surface heating across southern Kansas. This in combo with decent cloud bearing shear will still support a few strong storms from elevated and any quasi-surface based convection. Rather high PWAT values will also foster efficient rainfall rates as well into Sunday night. Convective chances will linger into Monday within the mean upper trough over the area. The southern portion of the aforementioned upper trof looks to help steer the remnants of Beryl northeastward across the Ark- La-Tex and Arkansas thru early next week. The northern portion of the upper trof looks to linger across the Upper Midwest and lower Missouri Valley through at least mid-week as the center of the western conus upper ridge moves gradually east across the Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. While non-zero, chances for organized precip seem somewhat more limited with temperatures gradually moderating closer to seasonal climo by Friday. Darmofal && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF period, however temporary reductions to MVFR or lower will be possible in showers and storms that will impact the area this evening thru end of the period. Storms, some severe capable of damaging winds (60-70mph) and large hail (quarters) will be possible this evening across central KS. Additional showers and storms are expected southeastward after 06z and continue thru much of the TAF period with chance of precipitation greater than 50% across much of the area. South to southeast winds are expected to continue across the area, however there is a chance an outflow boundary from this evenings convection may temporary turn winds more northerly. Thus confidence in wind direction is lower. Amendments will be made as necessary should outflow induced winds impact sites. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...KMB