612
FXUS64 KHUN 102330
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

As the remnants of Beryl continue to move over the northeastern
portion of the country, the Tennessee Valley is less and less
under its influence with high pressure taking over (both at the
surface and aloft). Expecting mostly clear skies tonight, and a
continuation of the dry air from today. In fact, lows are forecast
to dip into the 60s! Winds will be light to calm as well. Patchy
fog development is possible towards dawn for a few hours, but
confidence in the occurrence of fog is low. Enjoy the nice evening
before temperatures warm back up by late week!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

An upper-level trough currently over the Midwestern states, begins to
erode and allow for high pressure to settle in. This is situated with
synoptic-scale subsidence across the region, which should help to
limit convection. As a result, PoPs remain very low across the TN
Valley through Saturday. High temperatures are forecasted to rise
into the upper-90s by Saturday. The good news is that dewpoints
should stay primarily in the 60s, which should help to limit heat
indices through Saturday, though it will still be hot outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

[2PM UPDATE] - Not too many changes from the midnight forecast
package; however, models are trending drier through the weekend.
The Blend gave around 10 PoP or less Sunday afternoon; therefore,
expecting little to no rain chances through the weekend. With the
reduction in sky cover and rain chances, temperatures will have
the opportunity to warm into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
by Sunday and persist through midweek. As the previous shift
mentioned, with increasing moisture Tuesday into Wednesday next
week, Heat Advisories may be warranted. Please remember heat
safety and stay hydrated!

By late Saturday night into Sunday, a weak front may be close
enough to produce a bit more cloud cover and additional isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Again this might keep us from
hitting the century mark on Sunday. It will be very hot, but with
afternoon dewpoints between 60-67 degrees expected, heat index
values will be hard pressed to climb above 102 degrees.

As the fairly dry front shifts just southeast of the area and
weakens further, the tail end of the front extends into the
northeastern Gulf coastal area. However, the strength of the upper
ridge should allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper
90s again, but dewpoints should drop into the lower to mid 60s
again in the afternoon. This should keep heat index values below
104 degrees.

As the tail end of that front drifts northward towards northern
Alabama early next week, low level moisture increases again. This
could bring our heat index values to or near 105 degrees in the
afternoon. This trend looks to continue into the middle part of
next week before some relief in the form of rainfall may be on the
way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight categories at both
terminals through the period. The one exception may a brief
period of light fog at both KHSV/KMSL early Thursday morning
between 09-13z which may prompt localized MVFR conditions.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....Serre
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP.24