048
FXUS64 KHUN 141707
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 903 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Another hot and moist day is forecast as we remain on the NW
periphery of surface high pressure centered to our southeast.
Currently, cloud cover riding the along the border of high
pressure is propagating NE through the area. Diurnal heating will
aid to erode this, yet lingering clouds may have a negative
impact on temps and shower/storm chances later in the afternoon.

High temps are forecast to rise into the mid to high 90s. With
dewpoints likely mixing down to the mid to high 60s, heat indices
will max out around 100 degrees. A low (~20%) chance of diurnal
showers and storms will be possible this afternoon with some
storms having the potential to become strong. HIRES models
indicate steep low level lapse rates and maintain around 1000
J/KG of DCAPE yielding a threat for gusty winds. Without any
significant shear, storms will likely be primarily outflow driven
with coverage decreasing as the sun set.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Dangerous heat is forecast through mid week as highs continue to
climb into the upper 90s in most locations with low chances (10%
or less) of reaching 100 degrees. Monday through Wednesday, heat
indices are forecast to near or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (105
degrees) in portions of northwestern AL (primarily west of I-65).
Therefore, this will have to be closely monitored for potential
product issuance in future updates.

Otherwise, sfc high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will be
maintained through the early part of the week with diurnal heating
allowing low-medium chances (30-40%) of showers/storms. A trough
is forecast to move into the TN Valley, forcing sfc high pressure
eastward and rain chances to increase ahead of the subsequent
front on Wednesday into Thursday. During this time, medium-high
chances of showers/storms (60-80%) will be possible. Sufficient
low level lapse rates as well as instability and high PWATs
(2-2.1", nearing or meeting the 90th percentile per BMX sounding
climatology) will allow any stronger storms that form to be
capable of producing lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall, and
gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Models are hinting at the aforementioned front stalling to our
southeast, continuing to bring rainfall to portions of our area
and some relief from the ongoing drought conditions. Due to this,
at least a low chance of rain was maintained through the long term
period, with higher chances in the afternoon to early evening
hours. The front should provide slight relief from the ongoing
heat, as well. High temperatures during the long term period are
forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the remainder of the
TAF period at both terminals. There is a low chance (20%) for
scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Due to low
confidence in timing and coverage, this was not included in the
TAF. Amendments will be made to the TAF if necessary.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD