389
FXUS64 KHUN 121755
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 838 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Not many changes were needed to the forecast, as it remains on
track this morning. The main change was to lower dew points a bit
this afternoon based on Hi-Res guidance and persistence. With
light winds and some upper level clouds streaming overhead today
(perhaps some mid-level cumulus as well), highs are still forecast
to reach the lower to mid 90s for most areas. Some spots may
potentially reach the upper 90s. While it won`t be super muggy,
it`ll still be hot out there and we urge everyone to remain
weather aware and take precautions if you plan to be outside for
long periods of time. This is particularly true for those
susceptible to heat-related impacts. Make sure to take frequent
breaks in the shade and stay hydrated!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The main weather impact through Monday will be the building heat
as an upr ridge over the SW CONUS expands eastward during the
period. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will likely climb
into the mid/upr 90s at most locations, and even further on
Sunday and Monday, possibly eclipsing 100 degrees at some
locations. Although dew point values will probably remain in the
60s, especially during daytime mixing, heat indices may exceed
Heat Advisory criteria on Sunday and again on Monday, with values
in excess of 105F at some locations. With a largely diffluent low-
lvl flow pattern evident during the period, and a continuing lack
of significant forcing, any shower activity is expected to be
minimal during the period, with mostly dry weather anticipated.
Given the relatively low dew points expected and with developing
drought conditions already in place, nighttime temperatures were
lowered a little towards the lower end of the NBM guidance
envelope.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A slight chance in the pattern may begin to occur on Tuesday
stretching into the rest of the week as the ridge weakens and a
new trough begins to take shape in the East CONUS. However, this
will not thwart temperature rises on Tuesday as the main axis of
the warm plume of air emanating out of the SW will still be in
place across the region. Max daytime temps could still reach or
exceed 100F degrees on Tuesday, with heat indices climbing even
higher as dew points begin to increase. However, what may help to
inhibit temp rises will be an increase in cloud cover and the
potential for showers due to the increased moisture. POPs will
only be in the 20-30% range on Tuesday, but will increase into the
50-60% range for Wednesday and Thursday as a weak cold front
moves into the area from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions expected for both KHSV and KMSL for the duration of
the TAF period. Not much change in the aviation weather forecast
for the next couple of days. Winds around 5 kts from the N-NNE and
isolated to scattered Cu (and some upper-level cirrus) at about
4500-5000 ft.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...Serre