315
FXUS64 KHUN 080228
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
928 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Latest surface observational data suggests that a diffuse
trough/warm front continues to lie across the local forecast area
this evening, with a modifying continental airmass (featuring
dewpoints in the m-u 60s) to the north and a slightly more moist
airmass (featuring dewpoints in the lower 70s) to the south.
Extensive convection (which developed in the vicinity of this
boundary from western NC into west-central GA earlier this
afternoon) continues to spread southeastward and should not have
an impact on our region overnight. Additional thunderstorms which
developed along a marine warm front across southern portions of
MS/AL/GA will continue to dissipate quickly over the next couple
of hours, and should likewise have no impact on our region.
Pockets of lighter rain (currently observed across central MS) may
indeed reach the TN Valley early Monday morning, beneath a
moistening tropical fetch aloft, and for this reason we have
maintained a 10-15% POP overnight, as some of these returns will
evaporate into virga before reaching the surface. In addition to
the risk for some pockets of light rain, patchy fog may tend to
develop between 8-13Z near larger water sources (especially if
some breaks in the high clouds materialize). Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night due to clouds and some moistening of the
boundary layer, with readings in the u60s-m70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The upper level trough in the northern Plains will shift east into
the Great Lakes over the next couple of days, allowing TC Beryl to
lift northward through east TX Monday and into the Ozarks by
Tuesday. Southerly flow will push very moist low levels northward
back into the TN Valley. Given an uncapped atmosphere, this may
result in isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and early evening. This chance will be a bit higher on
Tuesday as the 8h and 5h ridge axes shift a bit further east. The
question mark is the strength and influence of the dry slot that
flows northeast as Beryl lifts north into MO. This may effectively
shut off shower and thunderstorm chances abruptly, so confidence
in PoP is very low, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
good news if we do not receive much beneficial rain is a break
from highs in the 90s potentially, at least on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The long term period will continue to bring high temperatures in
the 90s. However, heat indices are forecast to remain below heat
product threshold. A warming trend is in store, however, as
temperatures climb into the upper 90s by Saturday. We continue to
encourage everyone to stay hydrated, avoid leaving pets or
children in unattended vehicles, and avoid being outdoors during
the hottest part of the day. Rain chances during this time remain
low due to lack of synoptic forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

We will maintain a dry aviation forecast overnight, as convection
occurring from western NC southwestward into west-central GA
(along a subtle sfc trough/warm front) should dissipate over the
course of the evening, as should additional storms currently
developing invof a marine warm front across southern MS/AL/GA.
However, a bkn-ovc coverage of As/Cs will persist and should limit
potential development of BR/FG btwn 8-13Z to locations
immediately adjacent to large water sources. Forecast soundings
suggest that cloud layers aloft may become thinner tomorrow,
permitting stronger insolation and development of a more extensive
diurnal Cu field by 16Z. Sustained sfc winds will remain AOB 5
kts for much of the period, with SSW flow transitioning to
lgt/vrbl by 6Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD