Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
354 FXUS64 KHUN 061121 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Showers across the region have come to an end early this morning as a cold front continues to push southeast through the local area. High pressure will become the bigger influence in local weather today, as an upper low lifts north through the Great Lakes region and upper troughing broadens out over the Midwest. Drier northerly flow will help thin cloud cover as we head through the morning hours and into the afternoon, making for a pretty pleasant day for early July. Will have to monitor for patchy fog development early this morning, but that will largely depend on the amount of clearing we are able to achieve. With the front and associated moisture axis to our south, have maintained a dry forecast through the afternoon except for very low chance (<20%) PoPs across southern Cullman. Although afternoon highs will still reach the low 90s today, lower dewpoints will thankfully keep heat index values below 100 degrees, topping out in the mid to upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The sfc front will be positioned to our south tonight, keeping dry conditions in place with partly cloudy skies. The lower humidity should prevent any fog from being an issue, and overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s. In fact, this looks to be the "coolest" and nicest night for the next several days, so be sure to enjoy the lower humidity while it lasts. On Sunday, the influence of broad upper troughing begins to shift back to our north, and the aforementioned front will begin to track north through the area during the day. Still believe most of the area will be dry as the better moisture remains to our south and east over central GA, but will keep a low end (20-30%) PoP for our southeastern counties just in case isolated showers/storms do clip these areas. From there, eyes will shift a bit more toward where exactly the eventual remnants of Beryl track. Over the past 24 hours, have seen a more northward shift in the track and one that would be favorable for at least some beneficial rain for portions of the Tennessee Valley. There are some differences regarding the northward surge of moisture ahead of Beryl, and that leads to lower confidence in shower/storm chances Monday through the day Tuesday. Have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs during this timeframe, ranging from 60-70% during the afternoon hours. Looking at deterministic output and given the lack of stronger forcing ahead of the tropical system this seems a bit overdone, but given the uncertainty regarding Beryl will favor blends and ensembles over any one output. Any rainfall tied to Beryl currently looks to start moving into the area late Tuesday afternoon. Outside of this, expect mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the low to mid 90s through Tuesday with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For now, it looks like the majority of the rainfall we will get from Beryl will fall into the Tuesday night through Wednesday timeframe. As Beryl moves inland through eastern TX, it is expected to be ingested within the upper trough extending southwestward through the Midwest and into western TX. This favors a northeast shift in track and would currently favor a heavier rain axis stretching from northern MS through northwest AL and into Nashville. Any tornado/strong wind threat appears to be confined well to our southwest as the system will weaken considerably by the time it reaches this far north. Flooding looks to be the primary potential impact from this system, and will hopefully have a better feel for the track once Beryl makes landfall early next week. Highs on Wednesday look to be quite cool, only topping out in the low to mid 80s as rain and cloud cover limit diurnal heating. The remainder of the long term forecast will feature seasonably cool but warming temperatures as high pressure builds west from the Atlantic and upper ridging keeps us in a warm-sectored airmass. Without any signal for stronger synoptic forcing, will keep PoPs on the lower side (20-40%) for primarily diurnally driven showers and storms each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with few to scattered high clouds and light northerly winds becoming more northeasterly by tomorrow morning. No fog is expected overnight due to lower humidity over the area. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25