603
FXUS64 KHGX 140909
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
409 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Unlike the last few days, HGX radar is fairly quiet this morning, so
far. While models are still indicating that much of SE TX remains in
that weakness region between the ridging aloft (with weak shortwaves
moving up from the SW), MOS/NBM POP numbers are seemingly low for to-
day. This may be due to building high pressure at the low/mid levels
from the E/SE. So, have opted to go with isolated to scattered POPs,
which is a bit higher than guidance, for this afternoon. Progged PWs
remain in the 2 to 2.3" window for today, so locally heavy downpours
will be possible when activity gets going. With clouds/rain coverage
not as extensive, highs will be in lower 90s today. This should give
us heat index values in the 101-106F range. Convection will decrease
by this evening with overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s.

For Mon, decreased low-level moisture (PWs from 1.7-1.9") could give
us lower POPs despite the persistent mid/upper pattern. Coverage may
be more isolated during the afternoon tomorrow...generally for areas
along and south of the I-10 corridor. And as such, temperatures will
run a bit warmer across our northern CWA with highs in the mid to up-
per 90s...lower 90s for the central and coastal CWA. Activity should
weaken (per the loss of daytime heating)...with lows in the lower to
mid 70s (around 80 at the immediate coast). 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

By Tuesday, the South Central CONUS will remain on the periphery
of a strong upper ridge that will sit in place over the Western
CONUS through the remainder of the week. With a broad/weak area of
surface high pressure concurrently sitting over the
Central/Eastern Gulf, the synoptic regime in the extended period
will be dominated by light onshore flow and steady low-level
moisture transport. In general, rainfall chances will increase
over the course of the week. Precipitation on Tuesday/Wednesday
will generally be supported by diurnal heating and the inland
propagation of the sea/bay breeze boundaries, though global models
continue to show the passage of some weak shortwave energy on the
edge of the ridge aloft. More widespread rainfall coverage is
expected to arrive on Thursday and Friday as a more robust
shortwave trough pushes into the Southern Plains. This, combined
with an associated weak surface frontal boundary that should stall
out somewhere over SE TX, should result in most of the area
picking up some measurable rainfall. While we currently do not
anticipate a significant flooding threat, any stronger storms that
develop could produce some locally heavy downpours and/or gusty
winds as is typical in this summertime pattern. Rainfall chances
will linger into the weekend as the aforementioned frontal
boundary remains stalled over the area.

Temperatures will remain near seasonable values, with highs
generally reaching the mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 70s
(inland) to lower 80s (along the immediate coast/barrier islands).
With dew points remaining in the mid/upper 70s, the prospect for
Heat Advisories will return to the forecast with maximum heat
index values reaching 108-110 across portions of the area through
mid-week. Heat stress may be further aggravated by light winds,
though could also be mitigated by more abundant cloud cover
towards the end of the week. Nonetheless, heat safety precautions
will continue to remain important.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds will continue
overnight. Models keep suggesting SCT to BKN MVFR conditions
towards daybreak due to low ceilings and patchy fog. Confidence in
fog is moderate, given BKN high clouds. However, have kept some
MVFR conditions for most inland terminals through mid Sunday
morning. A few coastal showers will be possible in the morning.
The best rain/storm chances will once again occur in the
afternoon, mainly for terminals south of CXO. Winds will generally
remain from the south at 5 to 10 knots.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light onshore winds and relatively low (1-3 ft) seas will prevail
through the end of the weekend and into next week. Daily rainfall
chances will remain in the forecast, with rain chances peaking on
Thursday and Friday. A few isolated storms could produce some
locally heavy downpours and/or strong winds, leading to brief
periods of higher seas.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  75  95  74 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  77  93  76 /  50  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  89  82 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cady