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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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931 FXUS64 KHGX 130827 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Activity down the coast is already starting to develop this morning and based on current trends, these showers/thunderstorms should con- tinue to spread north into the rest of the CWA. These elevated rain chances will persist through much of the day for locations along to north of the I-10 corridor. For areas south, it could be a warm/hot late morning to early afternoon in the wake of all this convection. But still cannot rule out some additional activity with outflows or the seabreeze late this afternoon. PWs near 2" will help to produce some heavy downpours with these storms. Otherwise, all these clouds and rains will help to keep temperatures down today...with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Coverage will be on the decrease by the evening hours with lows tonight in the mid 70s (upper 70s along the coast). For tomorrow, not a lot of changes are expected with the pattern as models continue to indicate that SE TX will remain in that weakness region of the ridge aloft. While guidance isn`t showing much by way of embedded shortwaves in this mid/upper flow, conditions do remain favorable for mainly daytime showers/storms as moisture levels over the area stays elevated (PWs 2-2.3"). So, will be keeping scattered POPs in place for Sun, mainly during the day. Highs tomorrow should range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, depending on where the heav- ier rains set up. Lows tomorrow night will be in the mid 70s...near 80 along the beaches. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The upcoming week will be characterized by a largely persistent synoptic pattern with mid/upper ridging over the Western CONUS remaining the dominant feature. With broad surface high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and little in the way of lee cyclogenesis over the course of the week, the synoptic pressure gradient will remain fairly week. This will result in a weak onshore flow regime, which, despite not accompanied by any significant forcing, will support the potential development of isolated thunderstorms each day. Global models show total PW values in the vicinity of 2.0 in, perhaps rising a bit by the end of the week given the persistent moisture advection. With diurnal heating providing a sufficient instability profile, afternoon storms along the sea/bay breezes will continue to be a possibility. While any stronger storms may produce an occasional strong wind gust or heavy downpour, the overall threat for severe weather and/or flooding remains low. With midlevel heights creeping slightly upward over the course of the week as the aforementioned ridge strengthens and shifts to the east, the growing concern will continue to be heat. Highs will remain on a generally increasing trend, rising from the lower 90s on Monday to the mid/upper 90s on Wed/Thu. This, paired with dew points in the mid/upper 70s, light winds, and scattered cloud cover, will continue to pose a threat for heat-related illnesses. Based on local heat index criteria, combined with other parameters such as the WBGT, Heat Advisories could very well be required by mid-week. Heat safety precautions will continue to be key. Overnight lows will continue to sit in the upper 70s/near 80. A setup for more widespread rainfall arrives on Thursday as a weak front pushes through the Central Plains and stalls just to our north. Resulting convection and any subsequent outflows will provide increased rainfall coverage, though the threat for flooding/severe weather still remains low. Cady && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Patchy fog may develop across portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours of Saturday. Isolated showers begin near the coast Saturday morning, spreading inland and becoming thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, then tapering off once again in the evening. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A fairly benign marine pattern continues through the rest of the weekend and into next week with high pressure situated to our east. With the pressure gradient remaining fairly weak, expect a light southeast wind and seas of 1-3 ft. Daily thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but coverage should remain isolated in nature. Any stronger storms could produce brief periods of stronger winds/higher seas. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 75 91 75 / 50 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 89 77 91 76 / 70 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 81 / 50 0 30 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...03 MARINE...Cady