812
FXUS64 KHGX 142335
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Tranquil conditions are expected tonight with light variable winds
and clear to partly cloudy skies. The lows overnight into early
Monday morning will be in the mid to upper 70s for the inland
portions and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal regions.

Drier air and a bit of a cap will help limit rain chances on Monday,
although some isolated showers and thunderstorms could occur in the
afternoon to evening hours. Skies will be sunnier as well and high
temperatures will rise to the mid 90s over areas north of I-10 and
in the low 90s elsewhere. Although the highs will be a degree or two
higher, the slightly drier air may keep heat indices closer to the
102-105 deg F range. Regardless, these conditions could still create
dangerous heat impacts, in particular for those working outdoors and
those without power. Please continue to practice heat safety and
drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room if able, and
stay out of the sun. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing and
try to limit strenuous activities. Never leave children or pets
inside vehicles unattended. If its too hot for your hands, then it
is also too hot for their paws.

Benign conditions expected Monday night with slightly cooler
nighttime temperatures, in particular over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region. The lows will be in the mid 70s over areas north
of I-10, in the mid to upper 70s over areas south of I-10, and in
the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

We will start out this forecast period on Tuesday with low rain chances
as the area still resides between two ridges aloft. As the rest of the
week progresses, the ridge out west will amplify and set the stage for
disturbances/impulses to move across the area. Toward the end of the
week (heading into the Thursday night-Friday morning time period), a
cold front looks to to sag into the area and stall somewhere near/along
the coast. The onshore flow ahead of this front will allow for a rise
in moisture levels (precipitable water values back up to above 2 inches
for a majority of the area) which will support better shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As of now, the Thursday afternoon through Friday time period
looks like our best shot for rain. Some slightly drier air tries to
edge into the area from the north over the weekend which could result
in lower rain chances. For now, prefer to keep chances on the elevated
side, especially central and south.

If we end up seeing enough breaks in the clouds/rains, we might need
to address possible Heat Advisories for parts of the area Tuesday through
Thursday. Expecting high temperatures mainly in the mid to mid 90s.
Beginning on Thursday or Friday, increasing rains/clouds in the area
should bring us slightly lower high temperatures Expecting high temperatures
these days in and upper 80s to lower 90s range.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A few showers and
storms will continue through 01Z Monday. Otherwise, light and
variable winds are expected tonight with patchy fog possible at
some inland terminals. Isolated coastal showers may impact LBX and
GLS in the morning. Isolated storms possible in the afternoon;
however, did not mention VCTS in TAFs due to low confidence in
location/coverage.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will prevail through Thursday
or Thursday night. Caution flags are not anticipated at this time. Periods
of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, especially heading
toward the end of the week and into the start of the weekend when a
cold front moves toward the coast and stalls somewhere in the area.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  93  77  93 /  10  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  82  90 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...42