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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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833 FXUS64 KHGX 171727 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A more active weather pattern will be in place over SE TX these next couple of days. Much of the CWA will be in a Marginal Risk for Exces- sive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Day 2 (Thur). Per the increasing moisture moving in from the Gulf, radar is show- ing decent coverage across the coastal waters this morning. Will be expecting increasing rain chances through this afternoon from areas near the coast up to and around the I-10 corridor. Activity will be on the decrease by this evening. Highs today should run warmer over our northwestern CWA (where POPs will be lower) in the mid to upper 90s...with lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s. We`ll start to see some changes with the larger scale synoptic pat- tern tonight as a weak frontal boundary slides down from North TX. This front is then progged to slowly move across the region on Thur to the coast then stalling at or just off the coast by Thurs night. This front appears to be courtesy of the previously mentioned weak- ness region in the mid and upper pattern deepening to a more trough like arrangement over the area. So, look for increased rain chances on Thur with the combination of the front, the seabreeze and plenty of daytime heating. PWs climbing to 2.1-2.3" could also account for some heavy downpours with the showers/storms that do form. Coverage should decrease by Thurs evening, but additional development may be possible overnight via embedded short waves in the upper jet. These increased clouds/rain chances should help keep temperatures down in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs tomorrow. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The wet weather will persist through the long term as Thursday`s stalled boundary continues to meander across the Gulf Coast through next week. Passing shortwaves plus daytime heating will help re-invigorate shower and thunderstorm activity along the boundary Friday and Saturday afternoons. An upper level ridge situated over the Great Basin will begin to shift further west towards California allowing for a more robust upper level low to move into the Central/Southern Plans Sunday where it will stay through at least midweek next week. This disturbance combined with PWATs nearing 2-2.3" will lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening through the work week. Rainfall totals Friday through the weekend will be up to 0.5-1" (some locally higher amounts) with the coastal areas seeing the best chances for the 1+ inches. The storm activity will see higher coverage and longevity Monday and Tuesday leading up to an additional inch or two of rain. High temperatures through the long term will be rather seasonal to even a couple degrees below normal thanks to the increased cloud cover and rain chances. Afternoon maximums will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Low temperatures will still be a few degrees above normal with minimums temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (and even low 80s along the coast). Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Generally VFR conditions will persist throughout the day with light southwesterly winds transitioning to southeasterly by the afternoon. For sites, near and south of I-10, some isolated to scattered showers/storms may develop between 19Z-22Z. A line of storms look to push through the area from northwest to southeast through the overnight hours mainly between 04Z-09Z. Additionally, MVFR ceilings are expected for UTS/CXO between 10Z-15Z. For Thursday, an additional round of convection is possible in the afternoon but some uncertainty remains on placement/timing. Batiste/Holloway && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Generally light onshore winds will continue through Thursday. A weak, diffuse boundary may reach the coastal waters late Thursday or early Friday morning leading to a brief period of light offshore or variable flow. The southerly winds should return by Saturday and continue through next week. Low seas are expected through next week with wave heights remaining between 1 to 3 feet. The chance for showers and storms increase Thursday and remain in the forecast through the weekend and into next week. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 92 73 91 / 20 50 30 40 Houston (IAH) 78 93 75 90 / 10 60 50 70 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 78 88 / 30 60 50 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Fowler