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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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529 FXUS64 KHGX 181831 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Activity along the weak cold front (just north of the CWFA at this time) is beginning to ramp up this morning (with the help of an em- bedded shortwave tracking down from the NW). Will be expecting all this convection to move down into the SE TX through the early part of the day. Locally heavy downpours and brief gusty winds are like- ly with these showers/storms as they approach our coastal counties around noon. Much of SE TX remains in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today. Activity should mix out as the air mass briefly stabilizes during the early afternoon. However, we could still see some re-development by late this afternoon (along/ near any leftover boundaries and the stalled front; as well as the additional heating). Thereafter, rain chances will be more hit and miss...depending a lot on where this frontal boundary ends up. The best POPs are likely to be across our central and southern/coastal locations tonight through late tomorrow afternoon/evening. As for temperatures, highs today could be tricky given that window of post storm stabilization during the late morning and early aft- ernoon hours. Maxes could very well go a few degrees above the NBM numbers in the grids for today (lower and mid 90s). Have gone with mostly lower 90s for Fri. Lows should run in the lower and mid 70s tonight and tomorrow night. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Keeping your rain boots and umbrella close by will be necessary through most of next week. That diffuse, weak boundary will be remaining near the coast through the weekend leading to continued showers and thunderstorms. As of right now, looks like areas along and south of I-10 will have the best chances for the precipitation this weekend, but may see some isolated showers and storms all the way up to the Piney Woods. But, rain coverage and chances increase going into the start of the new work week as an upper level low spins through the Central Plains bringing a stream of shortwaves from Texas through the Mississippi River Valley. The combination of these short waves, daytime heating, and deep moisture (PWATs will be between 2-2.4") will lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms with some storms leading bringing moderate to heavy rainfall. WPC has placed parts of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) on Sunday with all of SE Texas in the Marginal Risk on Monday. Figuring out exactly where the potential heavy rainfall may fall this far out is impossible, but some spots through next Wednesday may see a few inches of rain - with continued rainfall possible through the end of the week. High temperatures over the weekend will still rise into the low or even mid 90s thanks to breaks in the clouds, but that might be the last time we see the 90s through at least midweek next week. Thanks to overcast skies and the scattered to widespread showers or storms, highs will only get into the upper 80s for SE Texas. Going to see overnight lows to stay above normal thanks to the overcast skies with lows in the mid or upper 70s. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 With the quicker progression of this morning`s frontal boundary, showers and storms have generally dissipated. VFR conditions, along with light and variable winds, will persist into this evening and through the overnight hours with scattered high clouds continuing to linger. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out overnight as soils remain saturated from this morning`s rainfall, but dense fog is not expected. A brief window of MVFR cigs is possible during the overnight/early morning hours. With the boundary remaining stalled near the coast tomorrow, an additional round of scattered storms is expected to develop by late morning with most activity concentrated along and south of the I-10 corridor. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Generally light onshore winds will continue through this evening, but a weak, diffuse boundary may reach the coastal waters late tonight leading to a brief period of light offshore winds through Friday afternoon/evening. The southerly winds should return by Friday night and continue through next week. Low seas are expected through next week with wave heights remaining between 1 to 3 feet. There will be a daily chance for showers and storms into next week. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 74 91 73 / 50 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 93 76 91 76 / 50 40 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 90 78 89 79 / 60 60 50 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Cady MARINE...Fowler