514
FXUS64 KHGX 202326
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Remnants of a weak frontal boundary looming over SE Texas should
continue to bring scattered to isolated storms this afternoon,
largely focused in areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Thunderstorm activity should diminish this evening as daytime
heating wanes, with a lull in rainfall anticipated briefly tonight.
Expected partly cloudy skies with lows in the 70s to lower 80s along
the coastline.

Showers and storms resume again Sunday morning over the Texas coast
as shortwave energy lifts north from the Western Gulf of Mexico.
High Pressure over the Desert Southwest and a midlevel trough over
the Mid/Upper Mississippi River Valley will establish a
west/northwesterly flow regime aloft. This will bring an additional
wave of impulses over portions of the Brazos Valley during the
afternoon. Better instability and ample moisture should encourage
more numerous storms throughout the day. CAMs suggest the bulk of
the rainfall will occur closer to the coastline, and to a lesser
degree near the Brazos Valley. WPC has most of SE Texas under a
Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of excessive Rainfall on Sunday, as the
strongest of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. Heavy rainfall from any stronger, slow moving storms could
result in ponding on roadways with minor street flooding in
urban/low lying areas. Cams suggest another lull in rainfall Sunday
night with the loss of afternoon heating, resuming once again
heading into next week. Highs will still be in the upper 80s to mid
90s with lows in the 70s to lower 80s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Still looking for a potentially very wet forecast for a majority of
the upcoming week as an upper level trough axis persists across the
area. Moisture availability will remain high as precipitable water
values rise above 2 inches and then persist in a 2 to 2.5 inch range.
The combination of these elevated/high moisture levels and a series
of slow moving disturbances/shortwaves will bring almost daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms to the entire area. Five day rainfall
totals are expected to average 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts
possible, and for now WPC has placed the area in Marginal to Slight
risks of excessive rainfall in their current Day 3 (Monday), Day 4
(Tuesday) and Day 5 (Wednesday) outlooks. If these rains materialize,
additional rains that are in the forecast for the remainder of the
week will most likely lead to additional excessive rainfall outlooks
(Thursday and Friday). Also look for rises in area creeks/rivers/bayous
as the week progresses.

With the clouds and rains across a majority of the area, cooler than
normal late July high temperatures can be expected (80s instead of 90s)
for much of the week.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Isolated SHRA/TSRA will diminish as the evening progresses, giving
way to mostly VFR night. Locally MVFR vis/cigs possible. Chance of
isolated to scattered SHRA increases tomorrow morning from IAH
south to the coast, with a better chance of a few thunderstorms by
afternoon. For our northern terminals, we opted not to put mention
of thunder in the TAF. That being said, there is some model data
suggesting that TSRA could occur as far north as CLL. Thunder is
mentioned in all TAFs from IAH points south to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024
Expect periods of scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms
for the remainder of the weekend and throughout much of the upcoming
week. Light south to southeast winds and mainly low seas will prevail.
In and near any stronger storms, look for higher winds, elevated seas
and the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Much of the area should receive several inches or more of rain for
the next seven days (this weekend and throughout the upcoming week).

Not including today, here are year-to-date rainfall totals and departures
from normal for our five major climate sites.

College Station: 37.50 inches (+14.96 inches)
Houston:         42.77 inches (+15.05 inches)
Houston Hobby:   37.57 inches ( +8.62 inches)
Galveston:       31.35 inches (+10.19 inches)
Palacios:        30.70 inches ( +9.14 inches)

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  94  75  91 /  10  40  20  70
Houston (IAH)  77  92  77  90 /  20  60  30  90
Galveston (GLS)  80  89  80  89 /  60  80  50  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams