536
FXUS64 KHGX 070948
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The entirety of the short term and the very beginning of the long
term discussions will be all about Beryl, so let`s just dive right
in! Current satellite trends for Beryl as of ~4am CDT reflect
convection developing along the southern and western fringes of the
center of circulation. Beryl is still battling some shear leading to
a tilt in height. It is also still battling some dry air intrusion,
which is clearly visible in water vapor imagery. It is expected to
get its act together later in the day as conditions become a bit
more favorable as it gets closer to the coast with shear becoming
less of an obstacle. We`ll continue to monitor the convection
around the low-level center as it continues to attempt to wraparound
the exposed center. Beryl is expected to strengthen as it
approaches the middle Texas coast later tonight right before
landfall. The GFS has performed the best so far with the track of
Beryl, and the 00Z run has indicated a slightly further eastward
shift in the track (the latest NHC forecast reflects this shift).
So, a little bit of uncertainty remains in the exact final
landfall spot for Beryl and that`ll play a big role into the
impacts felt across Southeast Texas late today into early Tuesday.

An outer rainband from Beryl moved inland earlier this morning
(those along the coast may have woken up to rumbles of thunder) and
most of the CAM guidance shows another rainband moving in during the
late morning to early afternoon hours from south to north. More
widespread heavy rainfall moves in late Sunday as Beryl approaches
landfall, and the heavy rain threat will continue through late
Monday. We`re still anticipating widespread totals of 5-10 inches
across the area with locally higher amounts up to 15 inches. Again,
this`ll be highly dependent on where Beryl makes landfall. WPC has
outlined areas along the coast in a slight (level 2 of 4) to
moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall mainly for late
today. On Monday, most of Southeast Texas is in a moderate risk for
excessive rainfall as we could see some training bands of heavy rain
lead to street flooding. There is potential for river/creek flooding
as well, and with higher amounts of QPF nudging eastward now...we`ll
have to monitor the bayous as well. A Flood Watch will go into
effect late tonight and will be in effect through early Tuesday
morning for areas along and west of I-45. There is potential for
this watch to be expanded further eastward, so stay tuned for
further updates.

Another hazard from Beryl will be the potential for isolated
tornadoes in the rainbands. As the center of circulation approaches
the coast later today, the low and mid-level flow will increase
leading to the potential for isolated tornadoes and gusty winds in
some of the stronger storms. This is most likely closer to the coast
where dew points will be in the upper 70s. As a result, SPC has
outlined coastal areas in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather for today and Monday. Strong winds will be another hazard,
especially for areas along the coast and west of I-45. As you can
imagine, this is another thing that is highly dependent on the
track/landfall especially for the strongest of the winds. The
tropical storm and hurricane watches/warnings are explained further
down in the "Tropical" section. As of the latest forecast, we`re
expecting the core of the stronger winds (hurricane force) to be
centered around Matagorda Bay, but tropical storm force winds will
extend inland up to the I-10 corridor. These strong winds may lead
to large areas of power outages, downed trees, and potentially
damage to roofs and mobile homes especially for areas south of I-10
and west of I-45 closer to the center of circulation.

By Monday night, Beryl will be close to exiting the northern
portions of Southeast Texas leaving us in a dry slot with
northwesterly winds beginning to prevail. This plays a slight role
into Tuesday`s temperature forecast. Speaking of that, temperatures
this afternoon will only top out in the low 90s due to increasing
moisture and cloud cover. With widespread rainfall on Monday, high
temperatures will only reach the low 80s. If you`re keeping score,
the last time we`ve had high temperatures in the low 80s was back in
mid May. Take a halftime break and join me down below to discuss the
remainder of the forecast period.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Welcome back! On Tuesday morning, Beryl will have weakened to a
tropical depression and will be centered over northeastern TX. A
trailing rainband still looks to extend through Louisiana and curve
back southwestward to just off the Texas coast. So, while inland
rain chances will be on the decrease, rain chances will remain a bit
elevated along the coast throughout the day. With northwesterly
winds persisting in the wake of Beryl on Tuesday, temperatures will
only top out in the upper 80s to low 90s.

We remain in a general "trough-y" pattern throughout the week
leaving us with plenty of PVA to lift lingering moisture. This
becomes especially relevant after midweek when another surge of
moisture pushes inland from the Gulf and raises PW values above 2".
So, expect an increase in rain chances towards the end of the work
week. The good news is that high temperatures look to remain mainly
in the low 90s through the end of the work week, but there will be a
strong upper level high building over the western CONUS. This looks
to gradually nudge eastward going into the weekend, so temperatures
will be on a steady incline towards the mid 90s.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

First outer rainband and associated SHRA/TSRA from Beryl are currently
working their way toward the coast. Next several TAF packages will indicate
periods of SHRA/TSRA and increasing/gusty E to NE winds as Beryl continues
to organize/strengthen and make its way toward the middle Texas coast.
06Z TAFs will generally have SHRA near the coast (GLS and LBX) through
15Z then further inland (remaining TAF sites) for the rest of the morning
and afternoon hours. Could see a break in activity for the TAF sites
heading into this evening, but expect multiple rainbands to begin moving
toward the TAF sites later tonight through tomorrow morning with the
bulk of activity during the day tomorrow.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Easterly to southeasterly winds will gradually increase throughout
the day as Beryl approaches the middle Texas coastline. Outer
rainbands from Beryl have already begun to push through the coastal
waters with additional rounds expected later today. Expect the
seas/swells to increase throughout the day as well with seas peaking
around 15-20 feet with locally higher seas closer to the center of
circulation. Winds and seas will peak Sunday night into early Monday
as Beryl makes landfall. Mariners can also expect an elevated risk
of rip currents and elevated tides/water levels...see the "Tropical"
section for additional details on storm surge. As Beryl weakens and
moves inland, expect winds and seas to gradually decrease
Tuesday/Wednesday. Chances for showers/storms will continue through
the end of the week.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Current Hazards:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the TX coast from Baffin Bay
northward to San Luis Pass, TX. This includes Jackson, Matagorda,
and coastal Brazoria counties.
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, TX to
Galveston Island, TX.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Austin, Chambers,
Colorado, Fort Bend, Inland Brazoria, Galveston, Harris, Waller, and
Wharton counties.
- A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the TX coast from coastal
Jackson to Bolivar Peninsula. This includes Coastal Galveston and
Coastal Harris County as well.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds
of 74 mph or higher) are expected within 36 hours or less. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
(sustained winds of 39-73 mph) are expected within 36 hours or less.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect due to the potential for moderate
to major flooding along local beaches where up to 4-6 feet of
inundation is expected.

As of ~4am CDT Sunday morning, Beryl remains a tropical storm with
maximum sustained winds at 60 mph traveling northwestward in the
western Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecast was adjusted slightly to
the east to reflect a landfall along Matagorda Bay as a category 1
hurricane on early Monday morning. Impacts from Beryl for portions
of Southeast Texas will include heavy rainfall leading to the
potential for flooding with rainfall totals of 5-10" (localized
amounts up to 15"), peak storm surge of 4-6 feet along the coast,
strong winds (hurricane force winds around Matagorda Bay and
tropical storm force winds extending to the I-10 corridor), isolated
tornadoes for our coastal counties, and elevated rip current
risks/tides.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. For more localized
forecasts and updates for Southeast Texas, please visit
www.weather.gov/houston.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  81  72 /  20  40  80  50
Houston (IAH)  92  77  82  75 /  60  70  90  60
Galveston (GLS)  89  80  88  79 /  80  90 100  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ235-236-335>337-436-437.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ210>214-226-227-237-238-313-338-
     438-439.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for TXZ176-
     177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>438.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

     Hurricane Watch for TXZ438.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Batiste