Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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217 FXUS64 KHGX 071759 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The entirety of the short term and the very beginning of the long term discussions will be all about Beryl, so let`s just dive right in! Current satellite trends for Beryl as of ~4am CDT reflect convection developing along the southern and western fringes of the center of circulation. Beryl is still battling some shear leading to a tilt in height. It is also still battling some dry air intrusion, which is clearly visible in water vapor imagery. It is expected to get its act together later in the day as conditions become a bit more favorable as it gets closer to the coast with shear becoming less of an obstacle. We`ll continue to monitor the convection around the low-level center as it continues to attempt to wraparound the exposed center. Beryl is expected to strengthen as it approaches the middle Texas coast later tonight right before landfall. The GFS has performed the best so far with the track of Beryl, and the 00Z run has indicated a slightly further eastward shift in the track (the latest NHC forecast reflects this shift). So, a little bit of uncertainty remains in the exact final landfall spot for Beryl and that`ll play a big role into the impacts felt across Southeast Texas late today into early Tuesday. An outer rainband from Beryl moved inland earlier this morning (those along the coast may have woken up to rumbles of thunder) and most of the CAM guidance shows another rainband moving in during the late morning to early afternoon hours from south to north. More widespread heavy rainfall moves in late Sunday as Beryl approaches landfall, and the heavy rain threat will continue through late Monday. We`re still anticipating widespread totals of 5-10 inches across the area with locally higher amounts up to 15 inches. Again, this`ll be highly dependent on where Beryl makes landfall. WPC has outlined areas along the coast in a slight (level 2 of 4) to moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall mainly for late today. On Monday, most of Southeast Texas is in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall as we could see some training bands of heavy rain lead to street flooding. There is potential for river/creek flooding as well, and with higher amounts of QPF nudging eastward now...we`ll have to monitor the bayous as well. A Flood Watch will go into effect late tonight and will be in effect through early Tuesday morning for areas along and west of I-45. There is potential for this watch to be expanded further eastward, so stay tuned for further updates. Another hazard from Beryl will be the potential for isolated tornadoes in the rainbands. As the center of circulation approaches the coast later today, the low and mid-level flow will increase leading to the potential for isolated tornadoes and gusty winds in some of the stronger storms. This is most likely closer to the coast where dew points will be in the upper 70s. As a result, SPC has outlined coastal areas in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for today and Monday. Strong winds will be another hazard, especially for areas along the coast and west of I-45. As you can imagine, this is another thing that is highly dependent on the track/landfall especially for the strongest of the winds. The tropical storm and hurricane watches/warnings are explained further down in the "Tropical" section. As of the latest forecast, we`re expecting the core of the stronger winds (hurricane force) to be centered around Matagorda Bay, but tropical storm force winds will extend inland up to the I-10 corridor. These strong winds may lead to large areas of power outages, downed trees, and potentially damage to roofs and mobile homes especially for areas south of I-10 and west of I-45 closer to the center of circulation. By Monday night, Beryl will be close to exiting the northern portions of Southeast Texas leaving us in a dry slot with northwesterly winds beginning to prevail. This plays a slight role into Tuesday`s temperature forecast. Speaking of that, temperatures this afternoon will only top out in the low 90s due to increasing moisture and cloud cover. With widespread rainfall on Monday, high temperatures will only reach the low 80s. If you`re keeping score, the last time we`ve had high temperatures in the low 80s was back in mid May. Take a halftime break and join me down below to discuss the remainder of the forecast period. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Welcome back! On Tuesday morning, Beryl will have weakened to a tropical depression and will be centered over northeastern TX. A trailing rainband still looks to extend through Louisiana and curve back southwestward to just off the Texas coast. So, while inland rain chances will be on the decrease, rain chances will remain a bit elevated along the coast throughout the day. With northwesterly winds persisting in the wake of Beryl on Tuesday, temperatures will only top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. We remain in a general "trough-y" pattern throughout the week leaving us with plenty of PVA to lift lingering moisture. This becomes especially relevant after midweek when another surge of moisture pushes inland from the Gulf and raises PW values above 2". So, expect an increase in rain chances towards the end of the work week. The good news is that high temperatures look to remain mainly in the low 90s through the end of the work week, but there will be a strong upper level high building over the western CONUS. This looks to gradually nudge eastward going into the weekend, so temperatures will be on a steady incline towards the mid 90s. Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Outer rainbands from Beryl will continue spreading across SE TX this afternoon with squally conditions developing at times. Coverage will be increasing tonight through tomorrow morning as Beryl moves inland and tracks north. Have added LLWS groups with this package given the current path of the storm starting tomorrow morning. Otherwise, TAFs will be mostly VFR (outside of the storms) with conditions deterior- ating this evening/overnight. Many amendments will be forthcoming as this event evolves. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Easterly to southeasterly winds will gradually increase throughout the day as Beryl approaches the middle Texas coastline. Outer rainbands from Beryl have already begun to push through the coastal waters with additional rounds expected later today. Expect the seas/swells to increase throughout the day as well with seas peaking around 15-20 feet with locally higher seas closer to the center of circulation. Winds and seas will peak Sunday night into early Monday as Beryl makes landfall. Mariners can also expect an elevated risk of rip currents and elevated tides/water levels...see the "Tropical" section for additional details on storm surge. As Beryl weakens and moves inland, expect winds and seas to gradually decrease Tuesday/Wednesday. Chances for showers/storms will continue through the end of the week. Batiste && .TROPICAL... Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Current Hazards: - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the TX coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass, TX. This includes Jackson, Matagorda, and coastal Brazoria counties. - A Hurricane Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, TX to Galveston Island, TX. - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Austin, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Inland Brazoria, Galveston, Harris, Waller, and Wharton counties. - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the TX coast from coastal Jackson to Bolivar Peninsula. This includes Coastal Galveston and Coastal Harris County as well. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected within 36 hours or less. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39-73 mph) are expected within 36 hours or less. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect due to the potential for moderate to major flooding along local beaches where up to 4-6 feet of inundation is expected. As of ~4am CDT Sunday morning, Beryl remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph traveling northwestward in the western Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecast was adjusted slightly to the east to reflect a landfall along Matagorda Bay as a category 1 hurricane on early Monday morning. Impacts from Beryl for portions of Southeast Texas will include heavy rainfall leading to the potential for flooding with rainfall totals of 5-10" (localized amounts up to 15"), peak storm surge of 4-6 feet along the coast, strong winds (hurricane force winds around Matagorda Bay and tropical storm force winds extending to the I-10 corridor), isolated tornadoes for our coastal counties, and elevated rip current risks/tides. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. For more localized forecasts and updates for Southeast Texas, please visit www.weather.gov/houston. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 75 81 72 / 20 40 80 50 Houston (IAH) 92 77 82 75 / 60 70 90 60 Galveston (GLS) 89 80 88 79 / 80 90 100 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ235-236-335>337-436-437. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214- 226-227-237-238-300-313-338-438-439. Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for TXZ163- 164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439. Hurricane Watch for TXZ438. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...41 MARINE...Batiste