491
FXUS61 KGYX 130806
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
406 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms move through this morning, then
some scattered storms are possible this afternoon as a cold
front pushes through New England. Drier air works into the
region tonight and Sunday, though temperatures will climb.
Humidity will increase on Monday and Tuesday before a stronger
cold front arrives Wednesday with the potential for some showers
and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier conditions arrive behind
the front for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and storms move through the area early this morning as
moisture rides northward from a disorganized system across the
Mid Atlantic and interacts with the stalled frontal boundary
across Maine and New Hampshire. Some heavier downpours have been
observed with storms so far, but overall these look to be
weakening as they continue to move eastward. The first round
early this morning looks to be the most well defined, and then
some scattered shower activity continues through the morning.

A break in the showers is expected through the early afternoon,
with a mix of sun and clouds and temps warming into the mid to
upper 80s in most spots. Some scattered showers and storms are
then likely to accompany a cold front moving through during the
mid to late afternoon hours. These storms likely reach the
coastline toward sunset, with most of the activity coming to an
end shortly after dark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Somewhat drier air works its way into the area overnight
tonight, allowing lows to dip into the 60s across most of the
area, with low 60s across northern areas. While still above
normal, they will be some of the cooler readings we`ve since in
the last few nights. After showers and storms move offshore
during the evening, the rest of the overnight looks dry and
quiet. Patchy fog is likely to develop, particularly through the
river valleys, and in areas that see the afternoon showers and
storms.

While the humidity will be a bit lower tomorrow, temperatures
will be on the rise as a southwesterly flow pushes temps into
the low to mid 90s across most spots outside of the higher
terrain. The immediate coastline is likely to see some relief in
the afternoon with a seabreeze developing as the high pressure
center moves offshore, but likely not before reaching near 90
degrees. An isolated shower can`t be ruled out across the higher
terrain, but otherwise a mainly dry and sunny day is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A persistent period of hot, hazy and humid weather will
continue until a potentially significant change in the weather
pattern arrives late next week...

We begin the long range portion of the forecast on Sunday with
operational models and ensemble solutions suggesting a large and
significant upper level ridge remaining off the seaboard. This
will leave the region with hazy, hot and humid conditions over
the region. Temperatures will likely reach 90 degrees across the
interior and along the coast from approximately Portland and
points south along the shoreline. This may be the start of the
first heat wave for portions of the coast, and a continuation of
persistent heat waves across the interior. This will also be
the first day of the return of hot conditions after one day of
clouds and slightly less warm conditions from the start of the
weekend.

Hot temperatures return to the interior once again on Sunday,
in areas where heat indices have been skyrocketing over the last
couple weeks. After the short reprieve, this will be a renewed
period of heat wave conditions for much of the region.

While seabreezes will likely cool off the shoreline slightly
during the afternoon, this warm spell will be noted by more of a
westerly flow aloft, potentially allowing temperatures to reach
90 degrees in the Forest City as well as much of the southwest
coast of Maine and Seacoast of New Hampshire before any onshore
winds develop. Surface dew points will be slightly lower than
this past week, but nevertheless, hot and humid conditions will
lead to a prolonged period of stressful conditions for outdoor
activities and areas without proper air conditioning.

By Monday, heights aloft will gradually be lowering without any
defined short wave in place. This will allow for a primarily
afternoon, diurnally driven scattered shower and with sufficient
instability, perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will
be outright hot with lower to mid 90s expected in all portions
of the forecast area. The only exceptions will be the higher
terrain in the mountains and the Midcoast area of Maine where
onshore winds will allow readings to remain in the 80s. It will
be humid with dew points continuing in the upper 60s, which is
actually a very mild improvement from the lower to mid 70s dew
points recorded much of this week.

Tuesday will be similar to Monday in terms of the chances for
precipitation and hot and humid temperatures across the region.
Tuesday may be day 3 of 90 degrees or higher in a row in
Portland which would be potentially its first heat wave of the
summer, while the interior continues its heat. This all comes
with sunshine, good mixing and H8 temperatures near +18C.

During the muggy period, expect periods of patchy fog. This
will be most likely during the overnight periods along the
interior valleys and also potentially near the coastline.

More heat on Wednesday with perhaps more scattered showers and
storms. Temperatures have the potential to hit 90 or above many
areas. However, model ensembles suggest a significant pattern
change at this juncture as an upper level trough builds towards
the region. Canadian high pressure may build into the region for
the later portion of the weak, bringing cooler and much drier
air to the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Showers bring brief restrictions this morning,
then VFR prevails for most of the day at most terminals. RKD is
likely to see marine fog develop and linger through the morning,
bringing IFR conditions for a few hours. An isolated shower or
storm is possible this afternoon, but PROBs remain low. Valley
fog is likely tonight, especially at LEB and HIE. VFR prevails
elsewhere through tomorrow, with VFR returning to all terminals
tomorrow morning.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions through much of the period.
There will be a chance for IFR conditions in any scattered
showers or thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon periods.
The exception will be Sunday when conditions will be dry all
areas. Patchy fog will continue, mainly at night and mainly over
the interior valleys and perhaps the coastline.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas continue to ease as a stalled front lingers
west of the waters. The front crosses the waters tonight, with
high pressure then building in behind the front tomorrow.

Long Term...South to southwest winds will continue through the
weekend and into much of next week. Winds and seas should remain
just below SCA thresholds each day with sea breeze circulations
increasing the gradient and resultant wind fields during the
afternoon periods. Patchy fog expected mainly during the
nighttime and overnight periods

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cannon