735
FXUS61 KGYX 131937
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
337 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered storms are possible through early this evening as a
cold front pushes through New England. Drier air works into the
region tonight and Sunday, though temperatures will climb.
Humidity will increase on Monday and Tuesday before a stronger
cold front arrives late Wednesday with the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier conditions arrive
behind the front for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest KGYX radar imagery shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over interior western ME and NH within
a blossoming cumulus field. The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows up
to around 1500 J/KG of SBCAPE along with 30-40 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear over the interior. CAMs continue to indicate that
these parameters combined with frontal forcing and a modest
mid-level westerly jet will allow for additional scattered
showers and storms through early this evening despite poor mid-
level lapse rates. There is a non-zero threat for an isolated
strong to marginally severe storm with locally strong winds the
primary threat. It will otherwise continue to be a partly
cloudy, warm, and muggy afternoon/early evening.

Scattered showers and storms will push east and diminish between
8-10 pm this evening as the cold front crosses through and we
lose daytime instability. Skies will clear overnight and this
combined with gradually lowering sfc dew points will allow most
locations to fall into the lower to middle 60s, although closer
to 70 in the urban corridor of southern NH. Patchy valley fog
will likely develop after midnight and some coastal fog is also
possible, especially over the Mid-Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will settle over New
England on Sunday, allowing for a dry day with partly to mostly
sunny skies. WAA aloft will help to push h925 temperatures to
between +23 to +25C, which will allow highs to reach the upper
80s to middle 90s south of the mountains and away from the
immediate coast. Highs across the mtns and coast will primarily
be into the middle to upper 80s. Dew points will remain
relatively low into the 60s to near 70 degrees, which will keep
heat indices to near the actual air temperature. A sea breeze is
likely to push inland during the afternoon.

Ridging will remain in place on Sunday night, allowing for
another dry night with partly cloudy skies and lows primarily
into the 60s. Patchy fog will once again be possible, especially
across the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 500 MB nearly zonal through midweek does nothing to cool us
down, it just reinforces the stream of warm and humid air.
However, a ridge moves onshore into wrn Canada by Monday and
should help a trough develop that deepens toward the Great Lakes
by midweek. This should help push some some cooler (less hot?)
air for the end of the week. 850 MB temps fall briefly to
11-12C, but generally still hover around 13-15 C into next
weekend. So, better than it was, but still on the warmer side.
Models to tend to overdo the cold push in the face of a strong
Atlantic ridge.

Monday will be hot, but Tuesday will be hotter with apparent T
approaching excessive heat advisory criteria, Its still day 3,
and Tds have a way of dropping off sometime, so theres still
some uncertainty but air temps S of the mountains should make it
around 90-95. There are a couple very weak waves that move
through the 500 MB flow Monday and Tuesday, not enough to
suppress the warm air, but enough to help generate some
convection both days, although they will be more likely in the
mtns. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s to low
70s with some mid 70s in S NH and some mid 60s in the mtns.

Wednesday will still be hot but the threat of more clouds as
well as convection ahead of the cold front should help maxes
fall off a couple degrees from Tuesday. Models have been a
little uncertain as to the timing of the front and whether a
wave forms along Wed night into Thu, so confidence is low on
what happens with the front around Wed night or Thu, but should
clear out by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through
02Z, which could result in brief IFR to LIFR restrictions along
with gusty winds. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through
this evening. Patchy FG is likely to develop overnight,
especially at KLEB, KHIE, and KRKD with IFR to LIFR restrictions
possible between 06Z-12Z Sunday. VFR conditions then prevail on
Sunday with light southwesterly flow, although an afternoon sea
breeze will result in southerly flow at coastal sites. Mainly
VFR is then expected on Sunday night outside of any patchy FG.

Long Term...The trend for Monday and Tuesday will be hot days
and mild nights with high humidify and the threat of fog each
night. Also SCT TSRA are possible both afternoons. The next
chance of more widespread flight restrictions will be Wed night
into Thu morning as the cold front pushes through and may stall
just off shore.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front crosses the waters tonight with winds
turning southwesterly on Sunday but remaining below 25 kts with
seas of 2-4 ft, highest outside of the bays. Marine fog will be
possible at times, especially at night.

Long Term...Generally winds/seas stay below SCA levels through
Tuesday night, but could approach SCA gusts late Wed or We night
in advance of a cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa