440
FXUS61 KGYX 111506
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1106 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions linger today as a slow moving cold
front stalls near the coastline by tonight. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are possible again Friday as the front
lingers over the region. A few more scattered showers and
storms are expected over the weekend with continued hazy, very
warm and humid conditions. Slightly cooler conditions can be
expected right along the shoreline with periods of maritime fog.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1105 AM Update...
Quick update to send products removing the Flood Watches for the
region. Some rivers remain high, but will likely hold below
flood stage. This is dependent upon convection this afternoon
which could hamper the receeding of water in some areas.
Remaining very hot today in southern NH and southwest ME.

930 AM Update... Latest radar imagery shows the main batch of
showers now exiting the Mid-Coast region of ME with just a few
light showers trailing behind it across coastal southwestern ME.
Went ahead and tightened up PoPs to account for these latest
trends. Latest mesoscale guidance continues to indicate the
potential for additional showers and storms to develop this
afternoon, mainly over interior western ME. Any storm will be
capable of producing locally strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Lastly, expanded the heat advisory to include interior York
County as heat indices should approach 95 degrees this
afternoon.

Previously...
6:45am Update... Refreshed POPs, temps, and dew points for today
based on the latest trends. One last heavy batch of showers and
storms are currently moving through the foothills into central
Maine. Temps are starting off very warm across southern areas
this morning, so don`t see them having any trouble getting into
the 90s this afternoon.

Previous...

One last batch of lighter showers and storms moves through
during the morning hours today, reaching farther south than the
overnight activity did. Hot and humid conditions linger today as
a slow moving cold front stalls near the coastline through
tonight. With these conditions, a few more showers and
thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon, with gusty
winds possible in any stronger storms. These look to remain
isolated to scattered, with the best chance across northern
areas.

Farther south, heat indices reach 95 degrees again today as
little relief is brought from the rain. It looks to be
borderline heat advisory conditions for interior southern Maine
today, but with the morning leftover convection moving through
the thinking is that these areas fall just short. Should either
the temps or dew points end up a degree warmer than the current
forecast, than these may need to be expanded. Onshore flow keeps
the coastline cooler again today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Another warm and humid night is expected tonight as the front
stalls near the coastline. This leads to patchy fog developing
again tonight, especially through the valleys. Any leftover
showers dissipate by late in the evening, making for a mostly
quiet overnight.

Friday looks quite similar to today, but just a bit less humid
as the stalled front inches slightly farther offshore. This
allows for better mixing of dry air during the afternoon, and
also allows the warmer temps to reach the southern coastline on
southwesterly flow, with temps warming to near 90 degrees. Some
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again during the
afternoon hours as a weak trough swings through New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An anamolous and large upper level ridge centered well out into
the Atlantic continues to be one of the primary drivers in our
weather conditions for much of extended portion of the forecast.
A deep moisture supply with high PWATs as well as high surface
dew points will dominate much of the region into next week. At
the same time, disturbances, albeit weak, will be moving through
this charged atmosphere leading to periods of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and away from
the shoreline where seabreezes will be common.

We begin the long range on Friday with temperatures well into
the 80s to around 90 degrees. 12Z guidance suggests that the
flow may be sufficiently enough from the southwest to allow the
Seacoast of Maine and southwest coast of Maine to encroach on 90
degrees as well. Temperatures will be cooler along the Midcoast
region near the shoreline due to an onshore component to the
winds.

Surface dew points will be on the high side but not extreme
with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The combined
temperatures and dew points will allow apparent temperatures to
reach the lower to mid 90s in some areas. This will be very
close to more areas reaching Heat Advisory Criteria. Along with
the heat and humidity, a stalled out frontal boundary and
approaching upper level trough will allow for the initiation of
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Model ensembles suggest Saturday will be a couple degrees
cooler as the stationary front begins to move to our east and
offshore. Dew points will drop a couple degrees. However, it
will still be very warm, especially away from the shore. The
chance for any showers and thunderstorms will be relatively low
during this period. The end of the weekend on Sunday will
feature more sunshine and slightly less humidity. Nevertheless,
this sunshine will allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s to
mid 90s in southern and central areas outside the mountains.

Similar conditions will continue through early next week with
surface temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s and dew points
in the 65 to 70 degree range. In essence, it will continue to
remain very warm to hot and continued muggy with primarily
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly away from
the immediate shoreline.

There will be the potential for a slight reduction in the heat
and humidity as we head into the midweek period next week. An
upper level trough and cold front from Canada may take aim at
New England. However, at this range out in time, there is much
uncertainty in this.

With the heat and humidity over the cooler Gulf of Maine
waters, patchy fog can be expected along and near the coastline
and mainly at night and during the morning hours. Interior
valley fog can be expected as well through much of the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...A brief period of IFR conditions remains possible
this morning following a batch of showers, then mainly VFR
return today, except at RKD where marine fog keeps LIFR to IFR
mostly ongoing through tonight. Valley fog likely returns for a
period at most terminals tonight, then VFR conditions return
tomorrow for all terminals.

Long Term...There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the extended forecast with the exception of Sunday.
This will lead to brief periods of LIFR conditions in locally
heavy rainfall. Nighttime patchy fog will lead to some locations
having low visibilities and ceilings especially along and near
the coastline most nights and early morning periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A SCA remains in effect into this evening as
southerly flow continues ahead of a slow moving cold front. The
front stalls near the coastline tonight, with winds gradually
easing, and seas taking a bit longer to settle below 5ft. The
front lingers across the waters through tomorrow night.


Long Term...A southerly flow will dominate the coastal waters
through the long range portion of the forecast. Winds and seas
will remain below SCA thresholds. Winds may increase during the
late morning and afternoon periods along and near the coastline
due to the added component of the seabreeze circulation. Patchy
fog will allow for low visibilities at times over the waters
especially during the nighttime and morning periods.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Overnight flash flooding across parts of northern New Hampshire
and northwestern Maine transitions to a more areal flood threat
as water continues to drain into the small and medium sized
river and stream basins. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
could bring localized flooding threats should they hit areas
affected last night, but otherwise the threat for new flooding
has mostly passed at this time.

Rivers and streams across these northern areas will remain fast
flowing and dangerous to swimmers and recreation through today
as flow rates remains high.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ018.
NH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
Cannon