616
FXPQ50 PGUM 070711
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
511 PM ChST Sun Jul 7 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the Marianas with
spotty showers passing through the coastal waters. Winds are gentle
to moderate, with altimetry and buoy data showing combined seas
around 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Weather this evening is quiet as a dry trade-wind pattern extends
across the Marianas and across most of the region north of 10N.
Satellite shows very little shower active to the east of the
Marianas, so expecting tonight through Tuesday to be similar to the
past couple of days. However, there is an weak upper-level trough
that extends from Wake Island and ends just east of the Marianas.
Models shows the southern half of the trough breaking off and
drifting westward across the Marianas tonight. Similar to last night,
this may be enough to spark some short-lived thunderstorms near the
Marianas tonight. Looking towards the middle and end of the week, a
couple disturbances are expected to pass through Micronesia and just
south of the Marianas. As these disturbances pass near the Marianas,
there will be an increased potential for scattered Wednesday through
Friday. Right now models keep the potential for thunderstorm very low
during this period, but models suggest a weak upper-level circulation
will near the Marianas around Saturday night bringing a slight chance
of thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate trade winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will
continue through the week. There is the potential for isolated
thunderstorms tonight, similar to last night as a upper-level trough
moves across the Marianas. Otherwise, not expecting much change in
marine conditions over the next several days, with the next change of
scattered showers looking to start around Wednesday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Not much change was made to the forecast. Satellite shows isolated
to scattered showers across eastern Micronesia with the bulk of the
showers near and just south of Kosrae. Scattered showers will remain
possible tonight and Monday for Kosrae and Pohnpei before becoming
isolated for Pohnpei Monday night. Showers are isolated in Majuro but
will become scattered tomorrow and over the next few days. Models
continue to show an uptick in precipitation coverage towards the
middle of the week as trade-wind convergences increases across the
region.

Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are near Majuro and 3 to 5 feet are near
Kosrae and Pohnpei. Seas are expected to rise another foot or so by
Monday night before gradually decreasing later this week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows isolated showers near Yap and scattered
showers near Chuuk and Palau. Showers look to remain isolated to
scattered in nature through the early work week. By the middle of the
week models shift the Near Equatorial Trough (NET) and trade-wind
troughs into western Micronesia, bringing chance to likely PoPs to
the region.

Besides the gentle westerly surface winds developing for Palau,
benign sea conditions are expected to continue for Palau and Yap with
combined seas ranging between 2 and 4 feet. For Chuuk, seas are
currently in the 3 to 4 foot range but should rise by 1 to 2 feet
early this week to the 4 to 6 foot range. Seas will taper down 1 to 2
feet towards the end of the week for Chuuk.

$$

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Schank
Micronesia: Williams