793
FXUS62 KGSP 071735
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will increase the chance for thunderstorm
activity outside the mountains today. An active pattern of afternoon
and evening showers and storms is expected to continue into the
coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 132 PM Sunday: The ongoing forecast remains largely on track
with only minor adjustments needed for this update. Very rich low-
level moisture has returned to the area with a previously stalled
frontal boundary lifting back north. This has resulted in anomalous
PWATs above 2" across much of the area. Latest CAMs are in good
agreement on numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon within the very moist and moderately unstable environment.
Storms will blossom across the mountains by early this afternoon and
then propagate into the Upstate and foothills and eventually
Piedmont through the early evening hours. Have boosted PoPs
accordingly. As for any hazards, the main threat will be for locally
heavy rainfall, especially with any slow/training storms, but at
least some upper flow should support progressive storms along
composite cold pools which should limit any isolated flooding
issues. A few stronger updrafts could support locally gusty winds,
primarily along composite cold pools with any loose upscale growth
as storms move out of the mountains. Modified 12z Peachtree City GA
sounding results in a microburst composite value of 3, which would
support the potential for a couple isolated severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has added a small marginal risk for
severe storms across the southern mountains, northeast Georgia and
the Upstate as any loosely organized convection shifts southeast
later this afternoon into the evening.

Otherwise...highs will be near normal. Tonight, plenty of lingering
cloud cover and continued elevated dewpts should make for another
warm, muggy night. Lows a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...A moist and weakly forced atmos remains in
place thru the short range. Upper heights vary little Mon as Atl
moisture flux increases due to an eastward shift i Bermuda High
ridging. Very hard to determine a main focusing zone as llvl bndrys
remain ill defined. There is a decent signal for upslope
precip/convec across the BR escarpment and further west into the NC
mtns, however, and have the best PoPs there, pushing into the likely
range, yet lower than the more deterministic NBM output. A solid
chance precip will be maintained east of the mtns as PWATS remain
quite high and subtle terrain lift could help instigate multicell
outflow driven cells. Due to little changes in the overall synoptic
pattern, will go with a persistence type fcst featuring high precip
storms moving slowly northeast or east within the mean steering flow
aloft. Thus, expect a chance of hydro issues, esp considering the
increase in antecedent conds across localized areas. A few severe
level storms will be possible as well with damaging outflow winds
the main threat. More uncertainty on coverage and storm mode exists
Tue as sfc troffing may develop from the west while the remnants of
TC Beryl push up the MS Valley with differing timing solns seen on
the op models. So, PoPs have been adj/d down a little yet still
remain abv climo values. Max temps will hover near or arnd normal
levels each day with no widespread HI issues expected. Mins will be
held abv normal by a few degrees each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM Sunday...A highly moist atmos remains in place to begin
the period, but this could change Wed into Fri as the guidance looks
to be trending drier. The latest op model runs all have remnant TC
Beryl more closed off and cyclonic then previous runs. This could
lead to higher moisture levels remaining tightly wound arnd the
former TC while dry continental air swings arnd the base into our
area from the west. Cross sections show a sigfnt lowering of theta/e
air in the mid/low levels and PWATS levels dropping arnd an inch.
This pattern change would curtail convection chances west of the
dry/density front and shift the focus of afternoon tstms across the
ern most zones of the FA into the latter ext period. Thus, have cut
back on PoPs giving some weight to this possibility. Still have abv
climo PoPs, but these may continue to lower on subsequent fcsts if
the latest pattern idea holds. Temperatures are still on track to
reach arnd normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection is ongoing across portions of the
area early this afternoon with a band of showers and thunderstorms
along a stalled frontal boundary extending from the mountains to the
I-40 corridor. Temporary restrictions from convection will occur
first in this corridor impacting KAVL and KHKY. With time, storms
are expected to become loosely organized and push east of the
mountains into the Upstate, foothills and Piedmont. With time,
temporary restrictions are expected at KGSP/KGMU, KCLT and KAND. The
strongest storms across the Upstate may contain gusty winds out of
the northwest. Thereafter, showers will likely linger for several
hours into the evening before dissipating with the loss of daytime
heating. A widespread low stratus deck is anticipated to develop
overnight into the morning hours with IFR ceilings common along with
periods of LIFR. In addition, fog will be possible at any given
terminal. Conditions will be slower than normal to improve tomorrow
morning with MVFR ceilings likely hanging on into the late morning
to early afternoon hours before finally lifting and scattering.
Winds will be generally light out of the south through the period,
but will be variable at times with occasional northerly components
possible, especially in the wake of afternoon/evening storms.

Outlook: An active summertime pattern continues for most
of the upcoming week, leading to scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms and possible restrictions each
afternoon/evening. Fog or low stratus may develop each morning,
especially over areas that received rain the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK/TW
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...TW