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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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802 FXUS63 KGRR 180713 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fair weather through Friday - Dry/pleasant weather continues through the weekend - Widely scattered showers and storms return next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - Fair weather through Friday High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today and bring fair and pleasant wx with high temps in the 70s today and comfortable humidity levels. It will be clear and cool tonight with mins mainly in the low to mid 50s along with a few upper 40s readings in typically cooler locations over our north/ne fcst area. Short range guidance time height rh progs and fcst soundings suggest skies will become partly cloudy Friday with sct-bkn fair wx cu developing late morning and afternoon. It will be several degrees milder Friday as winds become southwesterly. Max temps will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. - Dry/pleasant weather continues through the weekend Continued sfc ridging and dry air mass keeps the fcst dry/partly cloudy through the weekend although guidance continues to suggest a few isolated pop-up showers are possible Sunday afternoon in mainly northeast Lwr MI but including the Clare/Mt Pleasant areas. - Widely scattered showers and storms return next week For next week the general theme looks to be for daily, mainly diurnally driven, pop-up showers and storms-- peaking in the late afternoon/evening hours. This is due to weak troughing aloft and a slight increase in sfc dew pts and PWATs. Coverage on Monday and Tuesday still looks isolated (and mainly inland from Lk MI), but pops eventually creep up a bit by Wednesday and Thursday as an upper low drops in from the northwest (40-50 pops/scattered coverage). Deep layer shear remains on the low side so storms should be mainly of the pulse type and favoring any low level convergence zones such as the lake breeze during pk heating. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR weather prevailing today and tonight with dry air mass in place, and this is high confidence. North-northwest sfc winds near 10 kts, although gusting to around 20 kts at MKG this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A small craft and beach hazards statement remains in effect through early this morning. We then expect a brief lull in winds and waves for the rest of the morning. However a consensus of latest CAMs suggest winds will ramp back up a bit to around 10 to 20 kts with gusts to near 25 kts by mid to late aftn from around South Haven northward to near KMKG. Therefore once the early morning marine headlines expire we may potentially need another sca/bhs for several hours this afternoon/early evening. Otherwise conditions will become more tranquil going forward tonight and Friday as high pressure builds overhead. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meade/Laurens AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Laurens