140
FXUS63 KGRR 181138
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
738 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather through Friday

- Dry/pleasant weather continues through the weekend

- Widely scattered showers and storms return next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

- Fair weather through Friday

High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today
and bring fair and pleasant wx with high temps in the 70s today
and comfortable humidity levels. It will be clear and cool tonight
with mins mainly in the low to mid 50s along with a few upper 40s
readings in typically cooler locations over our north/ne fcst
area.

Short range guidance time height rh progs and fcst soundings
suggest skies will become partly cloudy Friday with sct-bkn fair
wx cu developing late morning and afternoon. It will be several
degrees milder Friday as winds become southwesterly. Max temps
will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Dry/pleasant weather continues through the weekend

Continued sfc ridging and dry air mass keeps the fcst dry/partly
cloudy through the weekend although guidance continues to suggest a
few isolated pop-up showers are possible Sunday afternoon in mainly
northeast Lwr MI but including the Clare/Mt Pleasant areas.

- Widely scattered showers and storms return next week

For next week the general theme looks to be for daily, mainly
diurnally driven, pop-up showers and storms-- peaking in the late
afternoon/evening hours. This is due to weak troughing aloft and a
slight increase in sfc dew pts and PWATs.

Coverage on Monday and Tuesday still looks isolated (and mainly
inland from Lk MI), but pops eventually creep up a bit by Wednesday
and Thursday as an upper low drops in from the northwest (40-50
pops/scattered coverage). Deep layer shear remains on the low side
so storms should be mainly of the pulse type and favoring any low
level convergence zones such as the lake breeze during pk heating.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 738 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High confidence in VFR weather continuing today and tonight with
just a few fair weather/flat cumulus clouds expected this
afternoon around 6000 ft. Sfc winds will be north to northwest
near 10 kts, although gusting to around 20 kts at MKG this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A small craft and beach hazards statement remains in effect
through early this morning. We then expect a brief lull in winds
and waves for the rest of the morning. However a consensus of
latest CAMs suggest winds will ramp back up a bit to around 10 to
20 kts with gusts to near 25 kts by mid to late aftn from around
South Haven northward to near KMKG.

Therefore once the early morning marine headlines expire we may
potentially need another sca/bhs for several hours this
afternoon/early evening. Otherwise conditions will become more
tranquil going forward tonight and Friday as high pressure builds
overhead.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ050-056-064-
     071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade/Laurens
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Laurens