070
FXUS63 KGLD 141145
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record to near record highs through Monday.

- Heat Index values up to 107 degrees possible through Monday
  afternoon.

- Heat Advisories in effect Today for the entire area and on
  Monday for those east of the Colorado border.

- Increase in rain chances beginning Monday through the
  remainder of the week along with a cool down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Overall there isn`t much change to the forecast in the short term.
Around sunrise, an outflow from the Nebraska/South Dakota storms
overnight will move south across the area bringing some stronger
wind gusts up to 30 mph for a few hours. Today will be hotter than
yesterday with highs ranging from 102 to 108 degrees. The Heat Risk
is in the Moderate to Major categories with Heat Index values up to
107 degrees. Overnight lows will be 66 to 75 degrees with heat
indices ranging from 66 to 75 degrees. Some records may be tied or
broken today (See the Climate section below for current records).
The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM MDT/10 PM CDT
tonight for the entire Tri-State area. During the late afternoon to
evening hours, there is a slight chance for strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms mainly west of Highway 83 along the dry line.
CAM guidance suggests that should storms develop they will be
similar to the last few days with potential for gusts up to 60 mph.

On Monday, the upper high will spread further over the Central High
Plains while a surface low/trough moves over Nebraska and Eastern
Kansas. How fast the trough moves away will impact temperatures as
cirrus clouds and eventually increased mid-layer clouds move over
the area during the late afternoon and evening. Monday is expected
to be slightly cooler than today with highs ranging from 98 to 108
degrees. Heat Index values could be in the lower 90s to around 105
degrees with the warmer values east of the Colorado border. Another
Heat Advisory will be in effect tomorrow for those east of the
Colorado border from 9 AM MDT/10 AM CDT to 8 PM MDT/9 PM CDT.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible again tomorrow afternoon
through the overnight hours. Showers and storms are currently
forecast to develop east of the Front Range and move into the area.
For any storms that move over, we are looking at another wind threat
primarily with gusts to 60 mph possible given the inverted-v
soundings seen with the CAM guidance. During the evening to
overnight hours, a cold front will move south across Nebraska before
eventually blowing across the Tri-State area through the 1st part of
the day Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The long-term looks to be a fairly active period. A 500mb high
pressure system will be sitting over the Four Corners and Great
Basin area with a trough over the Great Lakes. This will put us
under northwesterly flow from Tuesday afternoon through majority of
the period. In the lower-levels, the flow starts off northeasterly,
which guidance is showing will bring in more moisture. The
northeasterly flow sticks around until Wednesday evening when
southwesterly takes over. We are looking at with diurnal mid-level
shortwaves coming off the Rockies through majority of the period,
which would serve as a forcing mechanism form precipitation.

On the very positive side, temperatures will be much cooler in the
long-term than what is going on in the short-term. Tuesday looks to
warm into the mid 90s and be the warmest day of the period.
Wednesday will only get into the low 80s. If we have prolonged
showers and heavy cloud cover Wednesday, temperatures may not make
it out of the 70s. After that, we could see some more dry air mix
into our low-level flow, and a mild warming trend looks to start up
again. By Saturday, temperatures could be back near 90. If the dry
air mixes in more aggressively, temperatures will warm quicker.
Conversely, the opposite is true; is more moisture moves into the
area, temperatures will remain cooler longer. Overall, low
temperatures are stable, cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and
variable winds are expected from issuance through 16Z. From
16-00Z, winds slowly veer to the southeast, increasing to
around 12kts with some gusts to 20 kts. After 01Z, winds remain
generally from the south-southeast at 5-10kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
Light and variable winds at issuance will continue through 13Z
as an outflow boundary moves over the terminal. After 14Z,
winds begin the period light from the northeast, slowly veering
to the southeast by 19Z and for the remainder of the period with
speeds of 5-10 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Sunday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        105     2010
Burlington  105     1925
Goodland    107     1934
Tribune     107     1934
Colby       109     1934
McCook      109     1954
Hill City   113     1934


Monday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        102     2006
Burlington  103     2000
Goodland    106     1925
Tribune     108     2000
Colby       108     1925
McCook      112     1925
Hill City   113     1934

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.
     Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK
CLIMATE...JTL