841
FXUS63 KGLD 090712
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
112 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through the period.

- Heat gradually increases, peaking Friday through Monday with
  high temperatures generally a few degrees either side of 100.

- Heat indices of 100 to 105 remain in the forecast Friday
  through Monday for those generally east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tonight...a clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the 55 to
60 degree range.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...a weather disturbance (currently located in
Montana Monday afternoon) is forecast to move into the forecast area
during the times of peak heating before continuing southeast and out
of the area during the night. There should be enough moisture (700-
500mb) and lift with this feature to produce at least an isolated
storm or two across much of the area with enough confidence to
insert 20% pops across parts of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in
Colorado in the late afternoon/early evening hours. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with
low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, the forecast area is a a lull
of moisture from 850-300mb. That, along with very limited
instabilty, preventing any showers and thunderstorms from
forming. y should be enough to prevent showers and thunderstorms
from forming. High temperatures rise another few degrees into
the lower to middle 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...NAM/GFS/ECMWF models do show an increase
in 700-500mb moisture moving into the area from the northwest during
the afternoon and evening hours. This may be enough to support at
least a few thunderstorms and later forecasts may need to go that
route. High temperatures continue to rise and should be in the 95 to
100 degree range. If the NAM/GFS 850mb temperature bias` from the
past 2 weeks verify, we`ll see highs in the middle 90s to around
103. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The long-term will be dominated by a high pressure system over the
Four Corners region. This blocking high looks to persist through the
period and will work to create hot and dry conditions across the Tri-
State area. GEFS and the 0Z GFS are suggesting the trough to our
east will create a cutoff low over Texas late in the period, which
could introduce some showers early next week. Confidence is only
about 20% that this will occur.

The NBM seems to have a solid handle on the heat with temperatures
from Friday onwards warming to above 100 degrees for most of the
area. Heat indices will be near air temperature and are so far
remaining below 105F. Overnight temperatures be fairly warm with
lows ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Sunday night looks to be
the warmest and heat indices in Graham county may not drop below 75F.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
throughout the period, with the Colorado counties being the driest.
These dry conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. However, wind
does not look to be overly strong. The "best" days for fire weather
conditions look to be Friday through Sunday, but wind gusts look to
remain under 20 kts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds
will be light/variable through much of the forecast, but from
14z-18z southwest around 10kts, and from 01z Wednesday onward,
southeast around 10kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
light/variable through 22z Tuesday, then east-southeast around
10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN