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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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774 FXUS63 KGLD 080338 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 938 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances continue this evening, mainly across the southwestern 1/2 of the forecast area. - A prolonged period of dry weather returns Monday and continues through next Sunday. - Heat also returns, mainly Friday through Sunday with high temperatures a few degrees either side of 100. Heat index values around 100 degrees also currently forecast Friday through Sunday, mainly east of Highway 25. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Have cancelled the remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the severe weather threat for the evening has ended. Will continue to monitor for heavy rainfall through the night which may lead to some localized flooding issues especially across Wichita, Logan and Gove counties which saw the heaviest rain yesterday. Overall concerns for flooding are low at this time. Will need to keep an eye out for fog development overnight as dew point depressions are already less than 5 degrees across most of the area. Clearing skies, light winds and freshly saturated boundary layer may lead to some fog formation especially across western portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tonight...we should see another round of showers and thunderstorms move through from the north and northwest, supporting 20%-50% pops across the southwest 1/2 of the area through about midnight. Rainfall chances (pops) may need to go up if latest model trends hold. Cant rule out a severe storm or two, mainly across far eastern Colorado. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s. Monday-Monday night...dry weather is currently forecast. There may be enough moisture in the 850-500mb layer lingering around to combine with a few hundred Joules of CAPE to produce isolated showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon but at the moment coverage and confidence too low to include in the forecast. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range. Tuesday-Tuesday night...there will be some limited moisture in the 700-500mb later moving through the area from late afternoon through the evening hours. Instability is very weak with subsidence over the area along with poor mid level lapse rates. Presently, dry weather is forecast. High temperatures rise into the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, better 700-500mb moisture resides along the front range of the rockies, perhaps into parts of far eastern Colorado during the afternoon-evening hours. Instability remains rather unimpressive and for now will keep the inherited dry forecast going. High temperatures rise another few degrees with upper 80s to middle 90s currently forecast. Low temperatures continue in the middle 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The long term period is fairly straightforward: hot and dry. The upper ridge currently over the Great Basin will gradually move eastward, with the ridge axis aligned over the central plains by Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the triple digits are likely each day through the period. Record highs for July 11-14 are generally between 105-110, and might be in that territory in some locations. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop into the teens starting Friday and through the weekend, but wind speeds should stay well below any critical fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 441 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Watching for a period of MVFR conditions just after the start of this period for KGLD as another round of showers and storms moves through. At this time it does appear that any rainfall and MVFR conditions will stay away from the KMCK terminal. After this passes winds will continue to remain mainly light with variable winds at times. Clouds will also slowly dissipate as mid level dry air moves in. Did include some SCT sky coverage for Monday afternoon due to anticipated diurnal cumulus development. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Trigg