580
FXUS63 KGLD 080806
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are forecast for the area this week.

- Heat also returns, mainly Friday through Sunday with high
  temperatures a few degrees either side of 100. Heat index
  values around 100 degrees also currently forecast Friday
  through Sunday, mainly east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the short term period, relatively benign and warm weather is
forecast. The area is forecast to shift to the backside of the upper
trough that passed through into a more persistent northwesterly flow
pattern. However, neither the trough nor the ridge over the west
look to be amplified/strong near the area, leading to an overall
weak flow pattern. With drier air now in place over the area
compared to previous days, this is forecast to lead to a calm
weather pattern with generally sunny/clear skies and light winds.
There may be some cloud cover and virga this afternoon with guidance
picking up on some 700mb saturation, but precipitation is unlikely
with a lack of forcing in the area and dry low levels. Highs today
are forecast to be in the 80`s with tomorrow approaching 90 as the
upper ridge begins to try moving over the area. Lows will generally
be in the 50`s and low 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The long-term will be dominated by a high pressure system over the
Four Corners region. This blocking high looks to persist through the
period and will work to create hot and dry conditions across the Tri-
State area. The NBM seems to be getting a solid handle on the heat
with temperatures from Friday onwards warming to above 100 degrees
for most of the area. Heat indices will be near air temperature and
are so far remaining below 105F. Overnight temperatures will also
see a warming trend the first couple of days and then stay warm.
Wednesday night, temperatures look to cool to near 60. From Friday
night onward, low temperatures look to range from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
throughout the period, with the Colorado counties being the driest.
These dry conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. However, wind
does not look to be overly strong. The "best" days for fire weather
conditions look to be Friday through Sunday, but wind gusts look to
remain under 20 kts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions currently remain forecasted for each terminal. Do
have some slight concerns for fog development for KGLD from
09-12Z; however will remain dependent on if upper level clouds
can erode before sunrise. Winds for the day Monday will be
relatively light and variable at times. KGLD will be in the
vicinity of a surface convergence boundary which looks to be the
focus for diurnal cumulus formation so have included a tempo for
this.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg