Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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205 FXUS63 KGLD 060245 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 845 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather chances return for the weekend. Tomorrow could see severe storms develop with all hazards possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Overall forecast remains on track. Did increase pops into the likely category (54+%) across the east for tomorrow as guidance has remained consistent with initiating and ongoing convection into the afternoon. Do continue to still have concerns for 2+ inch hail although EBWD is lacking but still think that 8.5+ C lapse rates can overcompensate. Sunday morning, another consistent signal for training showers and storms perhaps into the afternoon. There may be some hydro concern that develops as this will be over the same area that looks to see the severe storms from tomorrows system. Due to middle of the road corfidi vectors (30-40 knots) and PWATS around 1.4-1.5 inches don`t think a widespread hydro issue will be on the table but some localized concerns. Looking at the 12Z EFI, it was also highlighting this same area for anomalous values of qpf as well. Will need to keep a close eye on this over the next few shifts. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Across the region this afternoon, skies are a mix from partly sunny east to sunny conditions west. The big differences is due to lingering showers that are a carry over from this morning as a weak 700mb trough passed through the area. High pressure still remains at the surface, allowing for a light yet variable wind for most, with temps as of 100 PM MDT mainly in the 70s with some spot 60s where clouds are more prevalent. The main wx concerns in the short term period will focus on the threat for severe wx Saturday and again on Sunday. Also some elevated fire wx potential over portions of northeast colorado. Upper ridge remains over the western portion of the country per the latest RAP40 500mb analysis, providing a NW flow aloft. For the remainder of today and into the evening hours, expecting a slow clearing from west to east as the aforementioned surface ridge shifts east of the CWA. Some weak instability along the northern tier zones may trigger a few rw/trw (15-20%) around 09z-12z Saturday before moving east. Much of the remaining morning hours Saturday will be decent as we await the arrival of a dryline setting up west and pushing slowly east into the afternoon hours. Guidance is mixed as to the position of the dryline going into the afternoon hours. This will pay a key role in the next round of convection set to initiate between 17z-19z Saturday, in tandem with a passing shortwave that rides down the eastern side of the upper ridge. The latest NamNest is showing convection starting around the midday timeframe and progressing fairly quickly south and east and possibly exiting by 00z Sunday with some lingering rw/trw thereafter. SPC continues to carry a Slight Risk for severe east of the Colorado border and a Marginal west, and will highly depend on where the dryline ends up. Looking for SBCape around 21z-00z to range from about 900j/kg to start but increasing to around 2000j/kg thereafter. DCape is around 1400-1500j/kg. Could see some severe hail around 1- 2" at the start of convection but eventually transition to a wind threat 60-70 mph as the convection moves through the CWA as a line. Some low chances for a landspout along the dryline, but orientation to storm motion is off. The other concern for Saturday will be in northeast Colorado behind the dryline. RH values will dip into the mid and upper teens with winds staying below criteria. Nonetheless some elevated/near critical fire wx conditions are possible, especially for western portions of Yuma/Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties. Guidance has a broader trough swinging through the CWA overnight into Sunday, with a surface low developing along the west side of the dryline remnants, moving south through Colorado. Easterly flow sets up overnight Saturday and eventually more of a northeasterly fetch going into Sunday. A front stretching east from the low will be the focus for additional convection late Saturday and through Sunday evening, with a shift of highest pops south as the day progresses closest to the low/front. Conditions in place for another potential round of strong to severe storms starting in the afternoon. Looking for decent instability to ensue with daytime heating. SBCape/MLCape values will range from 2500-2700j/kg around 21z-00z with DCape decent around 1000-1100j/kg. As a result could see storms with a wind and hail threat through the afternoon hours, possibly trailing into the early evening. SPC currently carries a Marginal risk for most of NW Kansas. Guidance shifts pops/precip southward with the low movement overnight Sunday, tapering rain/storms chances from north to the south, ending by 12z Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible Sunday with PW values ranging around 1-1.2 inches. For temps, highs for the upcoming weekend will range widely as Saturday will have upper 80s to lower 90s, but give way to mid and upper 70s for Sunday. Overnight lows each night will range mainly in the 50s, with warmest areas east of Highway 25. Some spots east of Highway 83 Saturday night could only drop to near 60F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Current runs of the GFS and ECMWF are continuing to show a broad amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country on Monday that will eventually shift slowly eastward by Friday. At the surface, the shifting of the upper ridge during the week will allow for a ridge to set up east of the area during this time, with a surface trough to our west. The trough does extend into the CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday night in tandem with a weak shortwave working through the east side of the upper ridge. This could give a 15-20% for trw/rw during this time, otherwise dry weather is expected. The focus for storms Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the entire CWA, but shift to along/south of the Interstate for Wednesday night. With the lack of moisture during the extended period, a return to near and above normal highs is expected area-wide as 850 temps Tuesday will range +24c to +28c with a range by Friday around +28c to +32c. This will be aided in part by southerly surface flow on the non-precip days. For temps, highs on Monday are expected to range in the upper 70s west into the mid 80s east, but will give way to upper 80s through the mid 90s from next Tuesday onward. Hottest day will be on Friday, mainly east of the Colorado border. Overnight lows will have a similar trend with mid and upper 50s Monday night give way to lower and mid 60s by the end of the week. Warmest locales will be east Highway 25. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 505 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions are currently forecasted throughout the night and most of the day Saturday. Winds look to remain mainly light and variable through the night before becoming more southeasterly as moisture advection occurs. As mixing ensues Saturday morning gusts around 25 knots looks to occur based on forecast soundings. Did introduce a PROB30 for each terminal as initially discrete storms look to develop around each terminal with large hail in the realm of possibility. Storm should be away from each terminal by late afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Trigg