628
FXUS65 KGJT 091736
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1136 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures reach 10-15 degrees above normal by the end
  of the week perhaps breaking records in spots.

- Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible each
  day for the central and southern mountains through early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

High pressure remains centered over the Desert Southwest bringing
record temperatures to that region. This leaves our area under
northerly flow and near normal temperatures. Yesterday return
flow forced some moisture into the southern San Juans, but some
of that has been pushed out overnight. Otherwise there is not
much moisture in this pattern. Some models show slight chances
for afternoon showers in the same place once again due to some
moisture working in from the Northern Rockies. Most of this will
only amount to cumulus on the higher terrain with perhaps a
sprinkle. Not much changes in the pattern for tomorrow so expect
the same conditions as today. Models show a slight increase in
the chances for afternoon showers along the Divide, but overall
the moisture is pretty similar. Highs look to come up a few
degrees as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The ghastly high pressure baking the Great Basin starts sliding
overhead Thursday. This will bump afternoon highs up a few degrees
Thursday afternoon. Some sneaky subtropical moisture will manage to
live another day in our southern counties. It looks like we will
keep those chance showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
forecast. Showers will generally drift south from their source
terrain and then weaken. Dry surface conditions could produce some
gusty outflows from these storms. Friday will be a rinse and repeat
of Thursday, but temperatures will notch up yet again as the center
of the high pushes overhead. A few respectable pockets of
subtropical moisture return Friday, this time with more coverage to
the north as we appear to circulate some Pacific moisture around the
top of the high. It does appear that we can expect some better
shower coverage on the San Juans and perhaps the Abajos Friday
afternoon. It looks like near record temperatures Friday afternoon.
As we head into the weekend, cloud cover could have some impacts on
afternoon highs. Our desert valleys will likely stay hot under
abundant sunshine. Saturday and Sunday start looking more monsoonal
as high pressure builds eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This is
certainly an uptick from yesterday morning`s model runs. Terrain
based shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase both
Saturday and Sunday under this solution. Monday looks like more
shower coverage, as PWAT`s get richer. Temperatures across the
region will remain hot through the end of the extended period.
Fortunately, the return of precipitation and cloud cover
indicate we can at least expect periods of relief at the tail
end of a very warm and dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 11316 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions with unlimited ceilings will continue at all TAF
sites through the next 24 hours. Light terrain driven winds can
be expected.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...NL