Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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921 FXUS65 KGJT 080311 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 911 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist this week for much of the West Slope, with temperatures increasing midweek. - Some moisture returns later this week for the southern mountains. Confidence is low in measurable rainfall and extent of areal coverage. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Winds have dropped across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, with relative humidity values slowly beginning to recover. As such, the Red Flag Warning for portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado has been allowed to expire. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Early this afternoon satellite imagery shows the high pressure center that has been driving our warm, dry weather for much of the last week has slightly shifted to the east/southeast and now straddles the coast of northern California. It will continue it`s slow progression to the southeast tomorrow giving us one more day of near-normal temperatures. Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues to limit precipitation chances area wide through Monday night. The most notable difference between tomorrow`s weather and what we`ve been experiencing the last couple of days is that the upper-level jet responsible for gusty afternoon winds gets pulled into eastern Colorado tomorrow morning with the passage of a shortwave trough. This will lead to lighter winds across the forecast area and help mitigate fire weather concerns for the time being. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will persist over the West throughout the remainder of the week ahead according to model consensus. As a result, temperatures will climb to around 5 degrees above normal where they will hover through Saturday. In the lower valleys it will be hot, but at this point, it doesn`t appear the region will be in record territory. With little wind under the high, critical fire weather conditions are unlikely despite low relative humidity. Despite high pressure, models continued to insist that outflows from storms east of the central and southern Colorado Divide will be forced west across the Divide resulting in increased chances of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms over the San Juan Mountains and the central Colorado mountains each day in the long term period. Not entirely confident in this solution, but we`ve seen moisture undercut the ridge in the past, which then gets recycled over a number of days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 558 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Gusty winds will continue through sunset with gusts 25 to 35 mph at times, especially across east-central and southeast Utah as well as southwest Colorado. Winds become light and terrain driven overnight with breezy conditions again Monday afternoon. VFR conditions remain through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Critical fire weather conditions continue across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado today thanks to low relative humidities and a deeply mixed atmosphere. Winds this afternoon are gusting higher than guidance had indicated. A good number of observed gusts between 35-40 mph have been reported, with locally stronger gusts possible. Winds subside later this evening and will move us back above the critical fire weather thresholds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...BGB SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...MDA FIRE WEATHER...TGJT