487
FXUS63 KGID 191752
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few non-severe thunderstorms (10-20% coverage) will be
  possible this morning.

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the local
  area later this afternoon and evening. These storms could
  impact our northern counties as early as 2 PM, sliding
  southeast through remainder of the afternoon and evening
  hours. Winds gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the primary
  concern, with quarter sized hail also possible.

- Periodic small chances (10-40%) for mostly non-severe
  thunderstorms will be possible this weekend into early next
  week. Temperatures will also remain below normal through at
  least Tuesday.

- Warmer temperatures (80s to lower 90s) and dry weather are
  anticipated for the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Isolated thunderstorms can be seen expanding SE near the SD/NE
state line early this morning. While previous runs of the CAMS
carried some of these showers and thunderstorms across the local
area this morning, most models have backed off and kept the
area dry. That said, maintained some small pops and a chance for
a non-severe thunderstorm or two starting as early as daybreak,
and continuing through around noon - partly due to trying to
maintain some consistency with the previous forecast and partly
because there is ample instability downstream of their current
location to keep them tracking southeastward.

Later today, expect a line of strong showers and thunderstorms
to develop near the NE/SD state line around midday, expanding
and tracking southeast through the afternoon and evening hours.
Given the elevated nature of these storms, inverted V type
soundings and little low level shear, 60 MPH wind gusts will
likely be the greatest threat, with a lesser threat for
marginally severe hail (1"+) with the strongest storms. The
overall timing of this event has sped up some, and think the
main line should be pushing across the area between roughly
3-10 PM.

Behind this line of strong to severe storms, north-
northwesterly flow will continue aloft for several days,
steering multiple weak disturbances across the local area along
with helping to maintain seasonably cool temperatures (70s and
lower 80s) into early next week. Later in the week, the upper
level ridge across the western interior is forecast to expand
eastward, helping bump up temperatures to near and eventually
above climatology by the end of the week in addition to
promoting a return to less unsettled (dry) weather across the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Off and on thunderstorms over the next
12-18hrs, some of which could be strong to severe this
afternoon.

VFR conditions to start the aftn with incr clds ahead of a line
of shwrs/storms. This line is earlier than previously expected
and should mainly be in the 20-22Z time frame. Storms could
intensify in time to be strong to marginally severe with gusty
winds and hail the main concerns. Expect a break in activity for
several hours this evening, but additional scattered weak
thunderstorms could redevelop overnight, generally between
midnight and dawn. The exact coverage and placement of the
overnight activity remains uncertain, so kept it prevailing
shwrs and only a VCTS at this time. Some spotty shwrs could
linger into Sat AM, but confidence is low. Some models drop CIGs
to at least MVFR late tonight through ~14Z Sat AM, but am
holding off on going that low given the low confidence.

Winds are southerly now but could become more variable in and
near thunderstorms. Generally lgt and variable winds are
expected overnight into Sat AM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies