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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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593 FXUS63 KGID 180523 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower/storm chances (15-25%) arrive overnight and continue into the morning hours on Thursday. - More widespread chances (50-80%) for precipitation arrive Friday evening-overnight and persist into the day on Saturday. - Below normal temperatures continue into the middle of next week with highs in the 70s and 80s and scattered precipitation chances (15-35%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 This Afternoon Through Thursday... Highs this afternoon have climbed into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area with partly cloudy skies. Thunderstorms developing over the eastern Rockies/western High Plains this afternoon bring the next chance (15-25%) for rain to the area. These thunderstorms will weaken as they move east, with the possibility that these thunderstorms completely die out before they enter the forecast area. A passing shortwave will allow for scattered shower/thunderstorms to develop during the early morning hours on Thursday. Overall, shower/storm chances (15-25%) are highest west of Highway 281. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Any lingering showers/storms will come to an end Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon-evening hours. A few thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon-evening hours on Thursday for areas mainly along and west of Highway 283. Lows Thursday night will be in the 60s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) during the early morning hours on Friday. Friday Through The Weekend... Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) during the morning hours on Friday. A shortwave trough moving through the Rockies will bring the next chance (50-80%) for widespread precipitation to the area Friday night-Saturday. Highs on Friday will be in the low 80s (north) to low 90s (south). Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the panhandle of Nebraska and move into the area during the evening hours on Friday. While storms are expected to weaken as they move east into the area, instability and shear will be sufficient for a few strong to marginally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts across western portions of the area. The highest thunderstorm chances (60-80%) across the area are during the overnight hours on Friday. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms chances (40-60%) persist throughout the day on Saturday, with chances decreasing (25-45%) Saturday evening-overnight. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Precipitation chances (25-45%) continue on Sunday. Next Week... Troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the southwestern U.S. will continue into next week. Below normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the 70s and 80s each day (normal highs are upper 80s to low 90s). A series of shortwave troughs bring scattered precipitation chances to the area every day. The WPC 6-10 day outlook shows below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation, with above normal temperatures returning in the 8-14 day outlook. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the period. An area of clouds around 5-7 kft with embedded showers/weak thunderstorms will be present through the morning hours today (Thursday). Current thinking is that at KEAR we could see VCSH or VCTS around 18/10Z, lingering through the morning...while at KGRI the precipitation activity should be even weaker, so VCSH starting at around 10/13Z. Introduced some patchy fog at KGRI as VCSH will be slower to develop but if clouds move in a bit faster, this probably would not occur. Shower activity will decrease this afternoon, while cloud cover is expected to briefly scatter out this evening. Winds will be SE at 5-10 kts through the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Hickford