424
FXUS63 KGID 182342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and non-severe thunderstorms are possible early
  Friday morning.

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms move across the area
  late Friday afternoon through the overnight. A few of these
  will likely be strong to severe.

- Off and on shower/t-storm chances continue through the weekend
  with below-normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Like previous days, CAMs indicate the potential for some
relatively high based showers/t-storms developing in roughly the
3-9am timeframe tonight into Friday morning. Most spots will
miss out on this activity, and severe weather is not expected.

A potentially more impactful round of thunderstorms is expected
to move northwest to southeast across the area late Friday
afternoon into Friday night. There are some questions on
overall coverage and timing of storms, but the entire area has a
decent chance to see rain/storms, and the peak timing for
severe weather would be roughly in the 5pm to midnight timeframe
(earlier northwest and later southeast). Speaking of severe, the
most favorable area for severe hail/wind will be over the
Sandhills, extending into northwestern portions of the area
where the HREF shows 1500-2500J/kg of MUCAPE. Bulk shear in the
30-40kt range with vectors oriented NW-SE will help maintain
some severe threat into the evening as storms move further into
our forecast area. Overall, storms should remain pretty
progressive and widespread flooding is unlikely, but CAMs do
indicate some potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts in
the 1-3" range.

The shortwave responsible for Friday`s storms is then expected
to cutoff over the Midwest, resulting in a pretty "stagnant"
into the weekend. 20 to 50 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue Saturday through Monday. Temperatures
will also remain below normal. This will be somewhat dependent
on cloud cover, but many locations will struggle to even reach
80 degrees each of these days.

An overall drier pattern emerges for the middle to end of next
week, along with gradually warming temperatures. Highs are
expected to return to near our climatological normals (upper 80s
and low 90s) by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR expected through the period.

Tonight: Similar to last night, expect a band of elevated
shwrs/storms to develop around 09-10Z, with cld bases around
5-7K ft. Winds will be SE to SSE 8-10kt. Confidence: High.

Friday: Sct elevated convection ongoing at sunrise should
dissipate mid to late AM. Clds will incr again late in the
period ahead of another chc for shwrs/storms. Winds will be SSE
to S 9-12kt, gusts near 20kt. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies