449
FXUS63 KGID 120009
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
709 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/sprinkles are possible late tonight-early Friday AM.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances (15-20%) Friday night.

- Temperatures increase this weekend with potentially dangerous
  heat Saturday through Monday. Heat Index values of 100-110
  degrees are expected.

- Scattered precipitation chances return Monday night and
  continue through Wednesday (25-45%), with cooler weather
  returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

This Afternoon and Overnight...

Highs this afternoon are in the low to mid 80s across south central
Nebraska, and in the low 90s across north central Kansas. Mostly
clear skies and light winds will continue through the late evening
hours.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s. A few
showers/sprinkles are possible during the early morning hours on
Friday as a weak shortwave moves through. Most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Friday...

Any lingering showers/sprinkles are expected to come to an end
during the mid morning hours on Friday. Ridging will build over the
area on Friday with the first in a string of hot days expected for
the area. Highs on Friday will range from the low 90s across
northern portions of the area, to around 100 across southern
portions of the area. Thunderstorm chances (15-20%) return to
northern portions of the area Friday night as decaying thunderstorms
from the panhandle of Nebraska move into the area.

Saturday through Monday...

Temperatures continue to increase this weekend, with potentially
dangerous heat expected Saturday through Monday. Dry weather is
expected this weekend, with sunny to mostly sunny skies each day.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s, with heat
index values climbing over 100 degrees across much of the forecast
area.

Sunday is expected to be the warmest day of the forecast period, as
highs soar into the upper 90s (north) to mid 100s (south &
Southwest) across the area. Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees
are expected on Sunday. Monday will be similar to Sunday for most
areas, as highs once again climb into the upper 90s to mid 100s and
heat index values reach into the mid 100s. The NWS experimental
HeatRisk product places areas south of I-80 in the "major" category,
with areas along/south of the NE/KS border climbing into the extreme
category due to the extended period of high heat indices.

Overall, potentially dangerous heat is expected this weekend and
into early next week across the forecast area. Heat headlines will
likely be needed across portions of the area this weekend and into
early next week. Those with outdoor activities this weekend should
take precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.

Monday night onwards...

Precipitation chances (15-30%) return to the area Monday night as an
approaching trough brings a cold front into the area. Tuesday will
be cooler across south central Nebraska with highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s. Highs around 100 are possible across southern portions of
the area where the cold front is slower to pass through.

A much appreciated break from the heat will arrive by the middle of
next week, with forecast highs in the 80s. Scattered precipitation
chances (25-45%) continue Tuesday through the end of the forecast
period as troughing develops over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
The vast majority of the period will feature VFR
ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free conditions. The
main concern is at least a medium-confidence chance for what
could be several hours of mainly MVFR visibility in light
fog/haze late tonight into early Friday morning. Winds will not
be a significant issue, with even the strongest gusts (during
the day Friday) averaging near-to- below 18KT.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation/thunderstorm details:
Starting with ceiling/visibility concerns, the primary issue is
what could be another round of pesky, primarily light fog during
the overnight-early morning hours (similar to what occurred
Thurs AM). While most models/guidance try to keep visibility no
worse than low-VFR, previously-issued TAFs already had
introduced TEMPO MVFR to KGRI. As a result, opted to expand the
MVFR "window of opportunity" to encompass 09-13Z and also
introduced to KEAR. It`s not out of the question that visibility
could drop worse than MVFR at least briefly, but this seems
like the best "middle ground" for now. Ceiling-wise, obviously
any greater-than-expected fog development could dramatically
deteriorate ceiling in a hurry, but for now opted to keep
prevailing VFR with "hints" of lower clouds in SCT/FEW groups.

As for rain/thunderstorm potential, there is a very small
(around 10%) chance of a spotty shower/weak thunderstorm passing
through mainly during the first part of Friday daytime, but this
chance is presently low enough to exclude formal TAF inclusion.

- Wind details:
Direction through the period will remain fairly consistent
(between southeasterly and east-southeasterly), and sustained
speeds especially tonight into Friday morning should average
near-to-below 10KT. A slight increase is likely mainly Friday
afternoon, but even then gusts should prevail near-to-below
18KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch