Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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835 FXUS63 KGID 120928 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers/thunderstorms will be possible this morning, mainly north of Interstate 80 early, then along and east of Highway 281 later in the morning. - Slight chances (20-25%) of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but those that do develop may be marginally strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph possible. The main timeframe would most likely be after 3 PM. Some storms may linger into early Saturday morning, but those should be on the weaker side. - Temperatures increase this weekend with potentially dangerous heat for portions of the forecast area Saturday through Monday. Widepsread heat index values of over 100 are expected, with some areas of 105-110 degrees possible. - Intermittent precipitation chances return Monday night through Thursday, with the best chances (40-50%) expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are also expected starting next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Aloft at 500 hPA, a trough extends southwest from Michigan to Missouri, with a broad area of high pressure over much of the western CONUS. At the surface, there is a weak trough over eastern Montana, which is expected to expand southward through the day today. A few showers and thunderstorms developing along a weak shortwave trough along the SD/NE border overnight are expected to continue south, potentially moving into our Nebraska counties by around sunrise this morning, then slowing moving south- southeast through the remainder of the morning. Severe weather is not expected with this round of showers/storms. This afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance (15-25%) of isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing, aided by a more pronounced shortwave moving across the area than the one this morning. Current thinking is that the majority of the area will remain dry this afternoon/evening and that the best chance for severe storms will be to our north and west closer to the trough axis, but nearly the entire area is under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The most likely timeframe for storms this afternoon and evening would be after 3 PM. Hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the primary threats. High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s north to over 100 degrees south, with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees possible across north central Kansas. Saturday through Monday... A few thunderstorms may linger into Saturday morning, but these are not expected to be overly strong. The big story this weekend will be the heat. Temperatures will increase this weekend and into Monday, with widespread heat index values of over 100 degrees expected. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are expected across the area Saturday, just shy of advisory criteria. After discussion with neighboring offices, elected to let the day shift take a look at things, but an advisory was considered. A few areas may see heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees, with the best chances of this occurring being Sunday afternoon and evening across the entire area and potentially across north central Kansas Monday afternoon and evening. Monday, a cold front is expected to move across the area, which will bring an end to the chances for excessive heat. Latest model guidance suggests that this will move through during the day, limiting the potential for excessive heat across our northern and western counties but allowing temperatures/heat index values to still be near 105 degrees across north central Kansas. That being said, the actual heat risk will be determined by the timing of the frontal passage...earlier in the day means less of the area would need to worry about heat impacts whereas later than forecast would have very hot temperatures impacting a larger area. Monday night onwards... With the front moving into the area and the upper trough pushing the ridge further to the southwest, precipitation chances will increase and temperatures will decrease. Highs will drop into the 80s and 90s Tuesday and south central Nebraska is expecting to see highs down into the 70s by the middle of next week. As far as precipitation is concerned, there is at least a 20% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms from Monday night through Thursday, with the best chance for precipitation being a 40-50% chance Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The main weather concern this TAF period will be the chance of fog early Friday morning. For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southeast at 8 kts or less during the early morning hours Friday and again late in the TAF period, with winds increasing to around 12 kts during the daytime hours Friday. Clouds will generally be FEW to SCT, with a layer around 7k-9k ft AGL and another above 20k ft AGL. Forecast models are indicated the potential for patchy fog across the area but only a 25% chance for IFR CIGS/VIS, so included a TEMPO group to account for that early Friday morning. Otherwise, there is a low chance for VCTS or -TSRA at the TAF sites early Friday morning and again Friday afternoon, but since confidence is so low and storms will be very isolated, elected to not include this in the TAF for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford