800
FXUS63 KGID 121726
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/thunderstorms will be possible this morning,
  mainly north of Interstate 80 early, then along and east of
  Highway 281 later in the morning.

- Slight chances (20-25%) of thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening, but those that do develop may be marginally strong to
  severe with hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60
  mph possible. The main timeframe would most likely be after 3
 PM. Some storms may linger into early Saturday morning, but
  those should be on the weaker side.

- Temperatures increase this weekend with potentially dangerous
  heat for portions of the forecast area Saturday through
  Monday. Widepsread heat index values of over 100 are expected,
  with some areas of 105-110 degrees possible.

- Intermittent precipitation chances return Monday night through
  Thursday, with the best chances (40-50%) expected Tuesday
  evening into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are also expected
  starting next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Aloft at 500 hPA, a trough extends southwest from Michigan to
Missouri, with a broad area of high pressure over much of the
western CONUS. At the surface, there is a weak trough over
eastern Montana, which is expected to expand southward through
the day today. A few showers and thunderstorms developing along
a weak shortwave trough along the SD/NE border overnight are
expected to continue south, potentially moving into our Nebraska
counties by around sunrise this morning, then slowing moving
south- southeast through the remainder of the morning. Severe
weather is not expected with this round of showers/storms.

This afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance (15-25%) of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing, aided by a more
pronounced shortwave moving across the area than the one this
morning. Current thinking is that the majority of the area will
remain dry this afternoon/evening and that the best chance for
severe storms will be to our north and west closer to the trough
axis, but nearly the entire area is under a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather. The most likely timeframe for storms
this afternoon and evening would be after 3 PM. Hail to the size
of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the primary
threats.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s north to
over 100 degrees south, with heat index values of 100 to 105
degrees possible across north central Kansas.

Saturday through Monday...
A few thunderstorms may linger into Saturday morning, but these
are not expected to be overly strong. The big story this weekend
will be the heat. Temperatures will increase this weekend and
into Monday, with widespread heat index values of over 100
degrees expected. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are
expected across the area Saturday, just shy of advisory
criteria. After discussion with neighboring offices, elected to
let the day shift take a look at things, but an advisory was
considered. A few areas may see heat index values of 105 to 110
degrees, with the best chances of this occurring being Sunday
afternoon and evening across the entire area and potentially
across north central Kansas Monday afternoon and evening.

Monday, a cold front is expected to move across the area, which
will bring an end to the chances for excessive heat. Latest
model guidance suggests that this will move through during the
day, limiting the potential for excessive heat across our
northern and western counties but allowing temperatures/heat
index values to still be near 105 degrees across north central
Kansas. That being said, the actual heat risk will be determined
by the timing of the frontal passage...earlier in the day means
less of the area would need to worry about heat impacts whereas
later than forecast would have very hot temperatures impacting
a larger area.

Monday night onwards...

With the front moving into the area and the upper trough pushing
the ridge further to the southwest, precipitation chances will
increase and temperatures will decrease. Highs will drop into
the 80s and 90s Tuesday and south central Nebraska is expecting
to see highs down into the 70s by the middle of next week. As
far as precipitation is concerned, there is at least a 20%
chance of showers and/or thunderstorms from Monday night through
Thursday, with the best chance for precipitation being a 40-50%
chance Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is a chance for an isolated shower/storm this afternoon-
evening, however confidence in timing or location is low. SCT
clouds of 12-15kft are possible through the overnight hours,
with decreasing cloud coverage Saturday morning. Southerly
winds will continue at 5-10kts through the evening, becoming
lighter and southeasterly overnight. Winds will slightly
increase Saturday morning and become southerly again.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Davis