650
FXUS63 KGID 140915
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
415 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8PM this (Sunday) evening
  for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, and Nance counties in
  Nebraska. Heat index values as high as 108 degrees are
  expected.

- A Heat Advisory is also in effect for all counties along and
  south of Interstate 80 as well as Merrick and Polk counties in
  Nebraska, and for the entirety of north central Kansas,
  through 8PM Monday. Heat index values as high as 110 degrees
  are expected.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week, with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s Tuesday
  and in the 70s and 80s Wednesday through the end of the week.

- Intermittent, but generally low (~20%) chances for showers and
  thunderstorms are expected daily Monday night through
  Saturday. The best chances will be Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday morning (30-60%)


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Today and Monday...

There is the potential this morning for ares of fog to develop
across south central Nebraska. For the most part, visibility may
be limited to 2 to 5 miles, but there is some concern about some
denser fog along portions of Interstate 80 and areas north. Any
fog that develops should dissipate by 9 or 10 AM, similar to
yesterday.

Beyond that, the main story today and Monday will be the
continued heat, especially today. An upper ridge centered over
the Rockies remains in place today with a surface trough
extending from eastern Montana into western Nebraska and Kansas.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area today
for heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees. With high dewpoint
values continuing overnight, there will be little recovery and
as heat continues another day, the Heat Advisory is in effect
for the majority of the area through 8PM Monday...except for
Howard, Valley, Sherman, Greeley, and Nance counties, for which
the Advisory expires at 8PM this evening. Monday, a cold front
will move into the area, switching winds from southwesterly
ahead of the front to northeasterly behind the front. Behind the
front cooler temperatures will move into the area, ending the
extreme heat threat.

Monday night through Wednesday...

The upper trough will remain in roughly the same area through
Tuesday, and there will be slight chances (around 20%) of
showers and thunderstorms Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
Currently expecting most of any activity to remain over or just
to the west of the forecast area, but with messy shortwaves
throughout the pattern am not comfortable limiting chances to
just that area. A more pronounced shortwave trough will cross
the area from NW to SE later Tuesday, bringing what looks to be the
best chances of showers and storms of the entire week Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning, mainly along and west of Highway
281 and across north central Kansas (with a 40-60% chance in
both areas). High temperatures Tuesday will be in the 80s and
90s, but Wednesday will be even cooler with highs in the 70s and
80s.

Thursday through Saturday...

Thursday will be mostly dry, but there will be a low chance
(15-25%) of showers and thunderstorms across western portions of
the forecast area in the morning. Afterward, models indicate a
series of disturbances bringing chances (20-40%) of showers and
storms to the area Friday into next weekend. High temperatures
Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s and mainly in the 80s Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is the potential for fog at the TAF sites from
approximately 09Z to 14Z Sunday morning. Model guidance
indicates the presence of fog but there is little consensus
within the forecast models regarding how dense it will be.
Included 4SM visibility in the TAFs but it could become more
dense, as model guidance indicates a 20 to 40 percent chance of
visibility less than 3SM.

Otherwise, skies are expected to be mostly clear with light and
variable winds through most of the TAF period. SCT high level
clouds are expected to move in toward the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ048-049-060>064-
     072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046-
     047.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford