119
FXUS64 KFWD 090736
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
236 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

Light rain has mostly exited our forecast area as the circulation
of now Tropical Depression Beryl shifts over the ArkLaTex region.
The Flood Watch for eastern North and Central Texas has been
canceled. Low clouds associated with low-level moisture on the
western periphery of Beryl will persist through the remainder of
the overnight and into early Tuesday morning primarily east of the
I-35 corridor.

As the remnants of Beryl shift over the Ohio River Valley Tuesday,
surface high pressure will filter over North and Central Texas
allowing for mostly sunny conditions and warmer temperatures.
Expect afternoon highs to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across
much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Winds will return out of the
southeast by late Tuesday evening.

Strong upper-level ridging will remain over the western CONUS
through the short-term forecast period keeping North and Central
Texas under north-northwest flow aloft. Hot conditions will
return by Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid-90s. High-
resolution guidance is hinting at some diurnally-driven
convection Wednesday afternoon across portions of North and
Central Texas. However, with MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg,
weak flow aloft, no discernible surface boundaries, and
relatively dry air below 700mb, coverage will likely remain very
isolated (less than 10%).

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Onward/

No significant weather events are expected for the next 7-10 days.
Temperatures will hover near to slightly above seasonal norms with
south winds around 5-10 mph each day. The south winds will draw
better moisture into the region this weekend and early next week
resulting in afternoon heat index values in the low 100s, but
generally below our Heat Advisory criteria. The moisture boost
will also support a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
Central Texas.

The quiet weather pattern is a result of Texas being underneath a
mid-level col between weather systems. The most dominant weather
system is a ridge over the Western CONUS that will subtly shift
east and elongate over the Central CONUS this weekend. The ridge`s
increased influence should nudge temperatures up, with much of
North Texas having a greater than 50% chance of experiencing
triple digit heat next Monday and Tuesday (higher chance west of
I-35/35W, lower east).

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all
terminals. Intermittent MVFR cigs associated with low-level
moisture on the western periphery of Tropical Depression Beryl may
briefly impact the D10 terminals through the overnight and into
early Tuesday morning (30-40% chance). SCT025 currently runs
through 16Z Tuesday morning, but a brief TEMPO for MVFR may be
needed if confidence increases in the coverage of MVFR cigs.

North-northwest winds around 10 kts will persist through Tuesday
afternoon, shifting to the southeast late Tuesday evening as the
remnants of Beryl move over the Ohio River Valley.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  72  96  72  96 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               88  69  93  70  93 /   5   0   5   0   0
Denton              92  70  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            91  71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              93  74  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             89  71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           91  72  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              94  71  96  72  97 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  69  96  71  97 /   0   0   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$