Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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802 FXUS64 KFWD 091039 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Only minor grid updates were made to this morning`s forecast package. Mostly sunny skies, rain-free conditions, and warming temperatures are expected across North and Central Texas in the wake of Tropical Depression Beryl as it continues its northeastward trek. See the discussion below for more details. Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Light rain has mostly exited our forecast area as the circulation of now Tropical Depression Beryl shifts over the ArkLaTex region. The Flood Watch for eastern North and Central Texas has been canceled. Low clouds associated with low-level moisture on the western periphery of Beryl will persist through the remainder of the overnight and into early Tuesday morning primarily east of the I-35 corridor. As the remnants of Beryl shift over the Ohio River Valley Tuesday, surface high pressure will filter over North and Central Texas allowing for mostly sunny conditions and warmer temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Winds will return out of the southeast by late Tuesday evening. Strong upper-level ridging will remain over the western CONUS through the short-term forecast period keeping North and Central Texas under north-northwest flow aloft. Hot conditions will return by Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid-90s. High- resolution guidance is hinting at some diurnally-driven convection Wednesday afternoon across portions of North and Central Texas. However, with MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg, weak flow aloft, no discernible surface boundaries, and relatively dry air below 700mb, coverage will likely remain very isolated (less than 10%). Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 236 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ No significant weather events are expected for the next 7-10 days. Temperatures will hover near to slightly above seasonal norms with south winds around 5-10 mph each day. The south winds will draw better moisture into the region this weekend and early next week resulting in afternoon heat index values in the low 100s, but generally below our Heat Advisory criteria. The moisture boost will also support a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Central Texas. The quiet weather pattern is a result of Texas being underneath a mid-level col between weather systems. The most dominant weather system is a ridge over the Western CONUS that will subtly shift east and elongate over the Central CONUS this weekend. The ridge`s increased influence should nudge temperatures up, with much of North Texas having a greater than 50% chance of experiencing triple digit heat next Monday and Tuesday (higher chance west of I-35/35W, lower east). Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all TAF sites. FEW to SCT 015-025 cigs can currently be observed across portions of North Texas on the western periphery of Tropical Depression Beryl. These intermittent MVFR cigs may move over the D10 terminals through 14Z-15Z this morning, but will likely remain too spotty in coverage for a mention in the TAF. Any impacts will be brief. North-northwest winds around 10kts will persist through this afternoon, turning out of the southeast later this evening. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 5 0 0 Waco 94 73 96 72 96 / 0 0 10 0 0 Paris 88 69 93 70 93 / 5 0 5 0 0 Denton 93 71 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 92 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 5 0 0 Dallas 93 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 5 0 0 Terrell 91 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 92 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 5 0 0 Temple 94 73 96 72 97 / 0 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 94 70 96 71 97 / 0 0 5 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$