148
FXUS64 KFWD 100801
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
301 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/
/Through Thursday/

As the remnants of Beryl continue to shift toward the Great Lakes
region, near-surface high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern over North and Central Texas. Therefore, expect mostly
sunny skies and seasonably hot temperatures through Thursday.
Afternoon highs will peak in the mid- to upper-90s each day.
Efficient afternoon mixing will drop dewpoints into the upper 50s
across the Big Country and the low to mid-60s elsewhere, keeping
heat index values under the century mark for most locations.

High-resolution guidance continues to suggest some diurnally-
driven convection may develop across portions of North and Central
Texas late Wednesday afternoon. However, dry mid-level air and
little instability will keep this potential low and coverage very
isolated. It is much more likely that afternoon thunderstorms
develop south of our forecast area in the more impressive PWAT
airmass.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday through Tuesday/

Quiescent and relatively typical July weather remains on tap for
North Central Texas from Friday through the middle of next week.

For much of the period, our region will find itself lodged
between a strong upper high center over the Intermountain West and
a weaker ridge over the middle Gulf Coast. The relative weakness
in the height field over Texas yield an opportunity for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Additional widely
scattered convection may also develop in this same area on Sunday.
Daytime highs through the weekend should reach the upper 90s,
which is just a tad above normal for mid-July.

By next Monday/Tuesday, ensemble guidance suggests the western
ridge will retrograde into the Central Plains/Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with North Texas situated on its southern flank. The
subtle but consequential increase in heights and subsidence will
help push highs near or slightly above the century mark at many
locations. Heat indices will accordingly rise across the area by
early next week, likely requiring additional heat advisories.

Additional opportunities for significant precipitation appear
practically nil until next weekend at the earliest. Over the past
30 days, much of the forecast area has received only 25-50% of
its normal precipitation.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all
terminals. Winds will generally be from the south-southeast around
5 kts, but could go variable at times through Wednesday morning.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  77  98  77  96 /   5   0   5   0   0
Waco                96  74  97  74  95 /  10   0   5   0  10
Paris               93  71  94  72  94 /   5   0   5   0   5
Denton              97  74  98  73  97 /   5   0   5   0   0
McKinney            97  73  97  74  95 /   5   0   5   0   0
Dallas              97  77  98  77  97 /   5   0   5   0   5
Terrell             94  72  96  72  94 /   5   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           97  74  97  74  95 /  10   0   0   0  10
Temple              97  73  97  72  95 /  10   0   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       97  72  98  72  97 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$