599
FXUS64 KFWD 102035
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

Our typical summer heat is in full swing today with most
locations reaching the upper 90s later this afternoon. While
surface ridging remains in control across the region, the
presence of a weak boundary and diurnal heating will be
sufficient for a few short-lived showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across portions of North and Central Texas. Given the
dry air aloft, coverage should remain fairly isolated with the
main concern being occasional lightning. Any activity will
diminish near/before sunset with quiet and mostly clear
conditions expected overnight. Low temperatures will remain in
the 70s with light southerly winds.

Another hot day is in store on Thursday with highs in the mid-
upper 90s and east/southeast winds between 5-10 mph. While some
of the latest CAMs show the potential for another round isolated
convection during the afternoon, the lack of decent moisture at
all levels should keep the coverage near or below 10%.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

Throughout the upcoming weekend, the Lone Star State will remain
beneath a persistent col. Sandwiched between a ridge over the
Desert Southwest and a remarkably strong Bermuda high, Texas will
see near-normal mid-level heights and seasonal daytime
temperatures as a result. An inverted trough will nose in from
Mexico, which may increase cloudiness and introduce rain chances
into Central Texas. In addition, the weakness aloft may encourage
sea breeze showers/storms that could move into our Central and
East Texas counties.

The troughing may persist across West Texas next week, which will
prevent ridging from fully re-establishing itself. But with little
rainfall across much of North Texas, dormant vegetation and soil
moisture deficits should allow temperatures to climb back above
normal. With adequate sunshine, triple-digit highs area likely
next week from North Central Texas westward into the Big Country.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...potential for isolated convection this afternoon.

VFR conditions and light/variable winds will continue through the
forecast period. The only concern this afternoon continues to be
the low potential for an isolated shower or storm to impact some
of the sites (especially east of I-35). The presence of a weak
boundary along with diurnal heating may trigger a few showers/
storms, but limited moisture should keep coverage fairly isolated.
Confidence remains too low to include VCTS at this time, but
adjustment to the forecast may be needed within the next 1-3
hours. Anything that develops should diminish after sunset, with
no additional impact expected the rest of the period.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  77  97  77 /   0  10   0   0   0
Waco                73  97  74  96  75 /   0  10   0  10   5
Paris               71  94  71  95  73 /   0  10   0   0   0
Denton              73  98  73  98  74 /   0  10   0   0   0
McKinney            73  97  73  96  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dallas              77  98  77  98  78 /   0  10   0   0   0
Terrell             72  95  73  94  74 /   0  10   0   5   5
Corsicana           74  97  74  95  75 /   5  10   0  10   5
Temple              72  97  73  95  74 /   0  10   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       72  97  71  97  73 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$