658
FXUS64 KFWD 120511
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1211 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Saturday/

Seasonably hot weather will continue to finish out the week and
going into the weekend with high temperatures in the upper 90s and
heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees. Stronger ridging will
remain displaced off to the west leaving the Southern Plains
beneath a weakness in the mid level height fields. While this
pattern can often lead to a scattering of thunderstorms during
peak heating, relatively dry air remains in place with a notable
moisture gradient displaced to our south. Meanwhile, a fairly
pronounced upper level (400-200 mb) trough will remain positioned
from the Great Lakes southwest into North Texas through Saturday.
This feature will provide some weak forcing for ascent, but the
drier air should mean that most of North Texas remains
precipitation free this afternoon. The only exception may be
across our southern counties where an active sea breeze should
lead to a decent coverage of thunderstorms across southeast Texas.
Some of these may work into our central TX counties by late
afternoon. We`ll have 20% PoPs to account for this. Any afternoon
storms will diminish by evening with loss of heating.

On Saturday, the deeper moisture will spread a little farther
north toward the I-20 corridor while the main synoptic scale
features remain relatively unchanged. This should lead to a
slightly better areal coverage of afternoon showers/storms from
our Central TX counties north to around I-20. Most areas will
remain dry with peak coverage around 20% during the late afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

A persistent col will remain above North and Central Texas this
weekend, the relative weakness allowing the active sea breeze to
move deeper inland on Saturday. Afternoon showers and storms would
primarily impact Central and East Texas, the disorganized
convection disrupting outdoor activities with lightning and gusty
winds.

By Sunday, an inverted trough will begin invading West Texas,
which should introduce subsidence above North and Central Texas.
The resulting inhibition should keep the radar scope quiet while
adding a couple of degrees to daytime temperatures. While highs
should peak in the 90s, steadily increasing boundary layer
moisture could allow heat index values to approach 105.

During the first half of the upcoming week, we will be in the
battleground between troughing to our west and a retrograding
ridge from the east. Mid-level heights may increase during this
process, but since the ridge is unlikely to fully re-establish
itself, temperatures will only be a few degrees above normal
Monday through Wednesday. Extended MOS keeps highs in the 90s, but
the perfect-prog blend favors triple digits from North Central
Texas into the Big Country where soil moisture deficits persist.
This includes the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

During the latter half of the week, ridging in the West will
amplify as the Southeast ridge shifts equatorward. This will allow
a mid-latitude trough to dive into the Southern Plains, its
associated surface front arriving on Thursday next week. July
fronts struggle to move deep into Texas, but even if temperatures
don`t significantly drop, above normal precipitation chances will
dominate the end of the upcoming week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south-southeast winds 10
to 15 kt. Isolated TS may develop from Waco southward on Fri
afternoon with slightly better coverage on Saturday. Otherwise, no
significant aviation concerns are expected at this time.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  98  78  97  79 /   5   0   0   5   0
Waco                73  95  75  96  77 /   0  10   5  20   5
Paris               71  95  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Denton              73  98  74  98  76 /  10   0   0   5   0
McKinney            73  97  75  97  77 /   5   0   0   5   0
Dallas              76  98  78  98  79 /   5   0   0  10   0
Terrell             72  95  74  95  76 /   5   5   0  20   0
Corsicana           72  96  76  97  77 /   0  10   0  20   5
Temple              73  95  74  94  74 /   0  20   5  20   5
Mineral Wells       72  98  73  98  75 /  10   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$