233
FXUS64 KFWD 170905
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
405 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/Overnight through Thursday/

A quiet night is in progress across North and Central Texas, but
the radar scopes are active north of the Red River where a semi-
organized thunderstorm complex is ongoing. This is in response to
the first of a few shortwave troughs digging into the Plains
around the periphery of stronger ridging to the west. In addition,
a chunk of cooler Canadian air is spilling south through the
Plains where temperatures are in the 50s across parts of the
Dakotas and Minnesota. A somewhat diffuse frontal boundary is
located across northern Oklahoma and is helping to serve as the
focus for thunderstorm development tonight. Most of this activity
will remain well to the north of our area through the overnight
hours.

On Wednesday, as the aforementioned shortwave spreads into the
Arklatex, the frontal boundary will also shift southward, likely
aided by thunderstorm outflow, and will cross the Red River during
the afternoon. While there won`t be a sharp temperature drop, it
will be accompanied by a wind shift to the north and increased
cloud cover. We`ll remain hot ahead of the boundary with
temperatures likely again in the mid to upper 90s, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during peak heating along
the boundary by mid to late afternoon. The boundary should be near
the I-20 corridor during this time with our first decent rain
chances expected in the Metroplex and spreading south into the
late evening hours. We`ll have PoPs at 30-50% during this time as
they should still be scattered in nature. While we can`t rule out
a few strong storms with gusty winds, generally weak flow and
modest instability should limit the overall threat for severe
weather.

It`s a little uncertain whether or not there will be any
organization to the cluster of storms into the evening hours with
the current thinking that they`ll likely persist for several hours
after sunset, but with a general downward trend in intensity. The
boundary itself will continue to push southward with additional
thunderstorm chances on Thursday mainly south of I-20. High
temperatures on Thursday should only manage the upper 80s and
lower 90s with more clouds and a light north wind.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through Next Week/

Unsettled weather will prevail this weekend and throughout the
upcoming week. During this period, North and Central Texas will
transition from a northerly flow regime to upper troughing, two
unseasonal patterns that will maintain below normal temperatures
and above normal rain chances.

A low-level circulation associated with an aging frontal boundary
will likely be over Southeast Texas on Friday. Its proximity will
keep daytime showers and storms in the forecast for our Central
and East Texas counties. But compared to Thursday, much more
abundant sunshine should allow most areas to reach the 90s, even
mid 90s across the Big Country.

Although daytime temperatures will still be below normal across
much of the region, Saturday may be the warmest day of the bunch
with sunshine dominating once again. However, a shortwave
embedded in northerly flow aloft may introduce some afternoon
convection, particularly across western portions of North Texas.

By Sunday, our northerly flow regime will give way to pronounced
troughing in the Central Plains. This will mean an unseasonally
cloudy period with daily rain chances. The rain chances (and
rainfall amounts) will peak Sunday and Monday but will continue
through the upcoming week. With considerable cloud cover and
well-timed rainfall, some locations will see high temperatures
only in the 80s. The convection should remain rather disorganized
with little concern for severe weather. But with precipitable
water values soaring to near maximum values for July, heavy
rainfall will likely accompany the activity. For many areas,
precipitation deficits this summer should preclude flooding
issues, but the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of rain may
eventually introduce some flooding concerns.

.CLIMATE...

DFW Airport reached 101 degrees on Tuesday, the 8th triple-digit
day this year. This tally is ahead of the 30-year normal for the
year to date, which is 5 days.

However, Waco and Killeen are behind schedule. For both, the
year-to-date normal is 6 days. Waco has only had 3 triple-digit
highs so far this year while Killeen recorded its 5th of the year
on Tuesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the overnight hours with increasing high
cloud cover from thunderstorms to the north. South winds around
15 kt are expected. A frontal boundary and increasing storm
chances will spread into North Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Winds
should become more southwesterly ahead of the boundary with VCTS
developing by 20Z. We`ll continue with a few hours of TEMPO TSRA
from 21-00Z. Winds will become more northerly behind the main area
of storms into Wednesday evening. VFR should prevail outside of
any convective areas.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  75  89  74  92 /  50  40  40   5  10
Waco                98  76  92  72  93 /  20  40  50  20  30
Paris               95  70  82  69  88 /  40  60  40   5   5
Denton              97  73  90  70  93 /  50  40  30   5  10
McKinney            97  72  86  71  91 /  50  50  40   5  10
Dallas              98  76  90  74  93 /  50  50  40  10  10
Terrell             96  73  85  71  90 /  40  50  50  10  10
Corsicana           97  74  86  73  91 /  20  50  60  20  20
Temple              97  75  93  71  93 /  10  30  60  20  30
Mineral Wells       98  73  92  71  93 /  40  30  40   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$