Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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836 FXUS64 KFWD 160855 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ Clear skies and a steady south wind will result in a warm but quiet night tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 70s by morning. Persistent ridging will remain in place on Tuesday with North Texas firmly beneath the eastern periphery resulting in hot and dry conditions. Modest south-southwesterly flow beneath the subsident ridge along with strong afternoon heating has promoted deep mixing the last several afternoons. This should continue on Wednesday with dewpoints falling into the mid 60s during peak heating. This reduction in RH should result in heat indices at or just above the actual air temperature. With high temperatures forecast to be in the upper 90s to near 103 today, we`ll see a few locations meet Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. The current advisory covers this well, and no changes are anticipated at this time. Today will be the hottest day this week as we undergo a pattern change through the end of the week which will certainly be welcome this time of year. Troughing will amplify over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes this afternoon into Wednesday allowing a chunk of cooler Canadian air to slide southward through the Plains while pushing our mid level ridge westward. While summertime cold fronts are generally a rare treat, this one will be aided southward by a rather potent surface high pressure center around 1024 mb which represents an approximate 6-8 mb positive anomaly. This suggests that the front shouldn`t have any trouble making it into North Texas, and much of the high resolution guidance now shows the front crossing the Red River on Wednesday afternoon. Given an earlier arrival during peak heating, we`ll likely see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop along the boundary and have raised PoPs accordingly. It`s a little uncertain how much heating we`ll see ahead of the front, but typically we have no problem warming up, and for now we`ll keep high temperatures in the upper 90s, but there is potential for these to need to be lowered. Given the timing of the thunderstorm chances, there will be a threat for strong storms with primarily a damaging wind threat through the afternoon. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Through the Early Next Week/ The extended portion of the forecast will be dominated by an unusual pattern for July: persistent northerly flow into Texas, which will be sandwiched between a strongly amplified ridge in the West and a Bermuda high to the east. This will maintain below normal temperatures and above normal rain chances. The cold front mentioned in the short term portion of the forecast may take its time clearing Central and East Texas on Thursday, keeping considerable shower/thunderstorm chances in place. Evacuating low-level moisture will reduce the instability, and generally weak shear should assure rather disorganized convection with a minimal threat for strong storms. The frontal boundary will then retreat, potentially maintaining its resolution enough to serve as a focus for redevelopment on Friday. Even where the boundary isn`t involved, surface heating and the absence of inhibition may allow for scattered afternoon convection, particularly across Central Texas where the moisture return will occur first. A similar day will follow on Saturday with sunshine- buoyed temperatures reaching the mid 90s, and gradually returning moisture keeping the radar scope active during the afternoon hours. Guidance begins to diverge this weekend with respect to surface boundaries and mesoscale features. There is the potential for a second front, but even without a surface boundary involved, returning moisture should assure rain chances persist. Increased precipitable water values will enhance rainfall efficiency, and in areas that encounter multiple rounds of significant rainfall during this period, flooding issues may arise. Cloud cover will correspondingly increase into early next week, stunting daytime temperatures even without the impacts of rain-cooled air. Highs may stay below 90F, potentially as much as 10 degrees below normal during what is climatologically the hottest time of the year. The GFS MOS is carrying a high of only 83F at DFW on Sunday, which would likely require a significant rainfall component. In any event, this will be a welcome respite from the summer heat, one that looks to continue beyond the current 7-day forecast. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with south winds 10 to 15 kt and occasional gusts to 25 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Tuesday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 98 76 92 / 0 5 40 30 40 Waco 100 77 99 76 93 / 0 0 20 10 40 Paris 100 78 94 73 88 / 0 5 40 50 50 Denton 103 79 97 73 92 / 0 5 40 30 40 McKinney 101 80 97 74 91 / 0 5 40 40 40 Dallas 102 82 99 76 94 / 0 0 40 30 40 Terrell 98 78 97 73 90 / 0 0 30 30 50 Corsicana 98 77 97 76 92 / 0 0 20 20 50 Temple 99 76 98 75 94 / 0 0 10 5 30 Mineral Wells 103 77 98 73 92 / 0 5 30 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$