Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
940 FXUS64 KFWD 011918 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 218 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/ /Through Tuesday/ East Texas will remain largely uncapped this afternoon, 70F+ dew points at peak heating assuring MLCAPE values approaching or exceeding 2000 J/kg. The richest corridor of moisture is mainly east of our area where dew point values are still >75F at this hour. Convective attempts will be possible this afternoon along the western periphery of this moisture axis, which will be within our CWA, but the majority of the afternoon activity will remain east of our easternmost counties. The mid-level ridge responsible for our current bout of heat continues its transit from west to east through the southern tier of states. During this process, 500mb heights have been at their maximum (>19,000ft AGL) yesterday and today (Sunday and Monday). Despite a steady decline in heights thereafter, the cumulative effect of the heat will mean that Tuesday will actually be the hottest day of the bunch. Deeper mixing will allow dew points to fall below 70F along and west of the I-35 corridor both today and tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday), minimum afternoon values a couple of degrees lower regionwide on Tuesday. But this reduced humidity will be offset by the increase in temperature, resulting in similar afternoon heat index values. Thus, the Heat Advisory has been extended for another day. There`s the potential for Excessive Heat Warning criteria to be met in portions of East Texas Tuesday afternoon, and the need for an upgrade will be assessed with subsequent forecast packages. 25 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the 103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th. Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the A/C, and wear light-colored clothing! A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5" range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid- summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s (possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR with south flow. Thunder potential confined to East Texas. A persistence forecast continues with daytime cumulus and passing cirrus. The diurnal variation in wind direction will introduce an easterly component during the afternoon/evening, but with speeds primarily under 10kts, a one-line TAF should suffice. Afternoon thunderstorms will be well east of the D10 but may impact eastern departures and arrivals through the Cedar Creek Cornerpost. These diurnally driven convective elements will dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 102 82 100 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 79 101 79 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 99 79 98 79 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 79 103 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 101 81 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 102 82 100 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 79 100 79 98 78 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 80 102 80 100 80 / 0 5 0 0 0 Temple 77 101 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 103 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$