Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
691 FXUS64 KFWD 012347 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 647 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the middle part of the week with temperatures above 100 degrees expected and little chance for rainfall. Nearly cloud free skies prevail beneath the ridge this evening, although an axis of higher moisture content across East Texas has lead to a few scattered showers and storms. This activity will diminish over the next 1-2 hours as the sun goes down. Clear skies are expected tonight with temperatures again only falling into the lower 80s. The center of the ridge axis will begin an eastward shift later tonight and mid level heights will actually fall a bit through Tuesday and the middle of the week. This eastward shift will allow low level flow above the surface to become a little more westerly resulting in deeper mixing and slightly less humidity on Tuesday. Despite the drier air, temperatures will likely be the warmest with highs between 101-105 degrees. Heat indices will be near ambient air temperatures west of I-35 and between 105-110 degrees farther to the east. An isolated shower may creep into our eastern/southeastern counties through early evening, but chances are generally 10% or less. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 218 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the 103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th. Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the A/C, and wear light-colored clothing! A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5" range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid- summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s (possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR is expected to prevail with southerly winds (variable between 160-210 degrees) 10-15 kt through Tuesday. No significant aviation concerns are expected through the period. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 101 82 100 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 101 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 78 99 79 98 79 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 80 103 79 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 83 102 82 100 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 78 100 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 80 101 79 100 80 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 101 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 103 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$