Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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779 FXUS64 KFWD 020821 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 321 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 129 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ Key Points: - Hotter temperatures today compared to yesterday. - Heat Advisory is in effect for much of North and Central Texas. - An Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect this afternoon from Paris to Sulphur Springs to Palestine. Heat Index values of 110-112 will lead to a major risk for heat related illnesses. The center of the mid-level ridge will continue atop North Texas today, keeping above normal temperatures in the forecast today and tomorrow. With no mid-level shortwave traversing the region today, no precipitation is expected. This afternoon`s temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday. The hottest temperatures will be west of US-281, where highs between 103F to 105F are expected. Elsewhere, temperatures will range between 98F to 103F. Afternoon mixing will help keep the heat index fairly close to the actual temperatures along and west of I-35. In the east, however, better moisture will yield heat index values about 10 degrees above their temperature. For this reason, an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for our far eastern counties. Steps should be taken to avoid heat related illnesses this afternoon, especially within the Excessive Heat Warning. As the ridge weakens some tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees lower. Heat index values will remain largely between 102-108 degrees. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: The aforementioned mid-level ridge will maintain the status quo through Thursday/Independence Day before a pattern change occurs and introduces the prospect of near normal temperatures and measurable rainfall Friday and Saturday. To put this week`s heat into climatological context, Thursdays high temperatures are poised to tie the record for the 3rd hottest July 4th at DFW. Additionally, we are on track to threaten daily high minimum temperature records through the end of the week. A cold front will push into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon reaching central Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Though this surface boundary will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development, this activity is not expected to impact 4th of July celebrations south of the Red River until after midnight. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the previous forecast with this update. 12 Previous Discussion: /Wednesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the 103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th. Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the A/C, and wear light-colored clothing! A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5" range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid- summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s (possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /Issued 129 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ No significant weather is expected at any of the North and Central Texas TAF sites. High clouds will continue through the rest of the early morning hours. Winds through sunrise will be out of the southeast, becoming southerly in the afternoon. Cumulus clouds will once again develop this afternoon but no precipitation will impact the region. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 83 100 82 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 101 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 98 79 98 79 97 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 102 80 101 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 80 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 83 100 82 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 79 98 78 97 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 101 79 100 79 99 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 101 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 103 78 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104- 115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-148. && $$